Unspoken truths about Trudeau’s cabinet shuffle

In politics, the truth often lies not in what is said but what is not. It helps explain these recent political developments: the departure of Scott Brison, the demotion of Judy Wilson-raybould, the elevation of David Lemetti, and the byelection campaign of Jagmeet Singh.

Begin with Scott Brison, who was president of the Treasury Board. He is leaving politics to spend more time with his young family.

But leaving the way he is — announced in an awkward video message with twins and husband as props — the joke may be on us. If Brison really wanted out, why didn’t he tell the prime minster last summer?

The last senior minister to leave government abruptly months before a federal election was John Baird (then foreign affairs minister). It incensed Stephen Harper, whom Baird told only the night before his public announcement. Harper refused to join the customary tributes to Baird in Parliament.

It was said that Baird left for a reason other than to join the private sector, as he said. Maybe he just knew the government would lose; we don’t know.

While Brison is not Baird, it is reasonable to suspect that Brison is also leaving for an undisclosed reason.

One explanation: He is worried about being called as a witness in the upcoming trial of Vice Admiral Mark Norman. As president of the Treasury Board, and a Nova Scotian, Brison doesn’t want to be drawn into this imbroglio. Better to bail now.

Then there is Judy Wilson-raybould. As the first Indigenous person to become minister of justice, her appointment was an emblem of the government’s commitment to remaking the country’s troubled relationship with Indigenous People.

But it will no longer involve Wilson-raybould, who is going to Veterans Affairs Canada, a second-tier department. It’s not a demotion, she protests, but what else would she say?

In this case, there are many whispered reasons. She made too many enemies of colleagues and bureaucrats. She was a lousy administrator. She disappointed Justin Trudeau.

With her gone, and Jane Philpott shuffled to Treasury Board from Indigenous Services, the Indigenous file now looks less important in an election year. The government’s belated calculation: There are no votes in this, so let’s discuss it less.

While championing Indigenous issues is morally right, it is politically thin. Indeed, the government may learn that talking about Aboriginals, like making apologies, is too much identity politics for mainstream Canada.

The political benefit of moving out Wilson-raybould is making Lemetti her successor. Beyond his shimmering resume, he is from Quebec, which is critical to the Liberals this year.

The Liberals need to pick up 20 to 25 seats to offset seats they will lose in eastern and western Canada, let alone Ontario, where the Liberals and the Conservatives are running even. In Quebec, the Liberals maintain a big lead. To Quebeckers, a seat at the table matters. Then there is Jagmeet Singh and the byelection in British Columbia. The Liberals shrewdly called it for Feb. 25, keeping him out of the Commons for months. But they may also have been too clever by half.

The Liberals could have declined to run a candidate in Burnaby South, reviving an old convention allowing a new opposition leader to enter Parliament in an uncontested byelection.

Singh, who has been a disastrous leader, will probably win Burnaby. But if he doesn’t, everything changes. He will be challenged by unhappy New Democrats, as former leader Tom Mulcair has predicted, and probably unseated.

If that happens, the NDP will choose someone else. Don’t believe there is no time for a party to pick a new leader before the election in October; note the swift ascent of Doug Ford in Ontario last spring.

To win another majority, the Liberals badly need the New Democrats to remain as unpopular as they were in 2015; they cannot afford to split the progressive vote. So, Singh’s election in Burnaby — and more of his fumbling, inept leadership — is key to the government’s re-election.

Another political truth, unspoken, of the new year.

Cohen is a journalist, professor and author of Two Days in June: John F. Kennedy and the 48 Hours That Made History.