Campaign nastiness is preview of any minority government

It is more than ironic that Conservatives who have led the charge to oust Justin Trudeau in this very nasty and divisive federal election campaign may wind up with something they least want.

Well, perhaps not exactly what they least want.

Obviously, the least thing Conservatives would want is another Justin Trudeau/liberal majority … although that seems unlikely to happen.

With Liberals likely to lose seats in the Maritimes, with the Bloc Quebecois rebounding and with Ontario continuing to be the uncertainty it has been, virtually no one is seriously speculating on another Liberal majority — a relief for those convinced that a growing carbon tax and environmental regulations slowing the approval of large infrastructure projects like pipelines will be the ruination of the Canadian (and especially, the Western Canadian) economy.

Now, add in whatever bump the NDP may get after leader Jagmeet Singh’s stronger performance in the English TV debate — a development that could drain Liberals of critical votes in close seats — and it might even enhance the prospects of a Conservative minority government. (That said, let us add the usual caveat that it’s dangerous to put one’s faith in the polls these days that suggest the Conservatives and Liberals are in a virtual deadlock.)

But given that no one seems to be really talking about a Conservative majority either, perhaps it’s time to give serious consideration to exactly what a minority government would look like — especially for those who have convinced themselves that the ills of the world will end on Oct. 21 when Justin Trudeau is ousted from office.

The higher probability right now is a minority government of one sort or another. That would seem to be a potential source of two big problems not only for Conservatives, but for all of us.

Scheer’s opening debate salvo Monday night suggesting Trudeau does not deserve to be running this country because he’s a liar and a phoney certainly did strike a chord with many conservative-minded people frustrated by both his policies and the short shrift he has paid to legitimate frustrations in western oil and agriculture. Such feelings were clearly wrapped around the front page of Thursday’s National Post, in an ad from the Canada Growth Council that was wildly cheered by former Saskatchewan premier Brad

Wall.

Exactly how much impact such uber-partisanship has — the Canada Growth Council was responsible for the anti-ralph Goodale billboards this summer, and among its three listed directors are Wall’s former communication staffer Derek Robinson and Regina businessman and Saskatchewan Party donor Tyler Willox — will be best determined on Oct. 21.

Along with Scheer’s strident language in his opening debate comments (structured and timed to be the first and most memorable clips to be recycled in both social and mainstream media), it’s clearly now a hard sell to get the conservative vote mobilized. This is clearly all about encouraging their voter turnout ... and maybe also encouraging the right-of-centre Liberal voters to at least stay home. As such, it’s a pretty common tactic ... even if it is a bit harsh.

However, if the polls are correct and we have a minority government, it won’t be easy getting revved-up Tories — or any uber-partisans — into the mindset of compromise.

Potentially, they might adopt a strategy to keep doing all they can to defeat a Trudeau minority government — especially one buttressed by the NDP and the Green party.

Certainly, Premier Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party wouldn’t be too averse to another year of fighting Trudeau as this province heads to its own election in 2020.

But given that we will have just gone through a campaign with all manner of nastiness that may produce nothing more definite than a minority, should any side be eager to do it all over again? Does anyone want to risk the wrath of voters by forcing them back to the polls?

Yet, after this campaign, is it realistic to expect combative politicians to find common ground anywhere?

We all might be stuck with something we don’t want.