Coalition is unlikely to do well

Those pointing to the last coalition government in Saskatchewan — a coalition pretty much in name only — may want to instead view what happened here as a cautionary tale.

If anything, Saskatchewan’s experience 20 years ago demonstrated why it’s exceedingly difficult to put together any workable/sustainable coalition. And it would seem that much more impossible in today’s federal political climate, where divisiveness is a far bigger factor than the political desperation in Saskatchewan politics in 1999.

The provincial election that year came roughly two years after the formulation of the Saskatchewan Party, which arose from the amalgamation of the old Progressive Conservatives and the supposedly rising Liberals.

In reality, the Saskatchewan Liberal party was actually a dysfunctional mess, suffering deep divisions over both policy and leadership. The then Saskatchewan Liberal Opposition simply fractured, with the right-leaning Liberal MLAS bolting to form the new Sask. Party and the remaining largely centre-left Liberals remaining as a third-party rump.

But then came the shocking Sept. 7, 1999 election results, which saw the newly minted Sask. Party take 26 seats, the Liberals hang on to three seats (including one picked up by then Liberal leader Jim Melenchuk) and the governing NDP reduced to 29 seats in the then-58-seat Saskatchewan legislature.

Essentially, there was a tie in 1999 in Saskatchewan between what was then the governing party and the opposition parties, with the NDP clearly having the most seats and the only real opportunity to form a government. The Sask. Party/liberal MLAS could not form a majority unless it convinced a New Democrat to take the role of Speaker, a highly unlikely event.

While current Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer is wrong if he is suggesting that the party with the most seats in any minority situation after Monday’s vote automatically gets first shot at governing, what he is right about is that the party with the most seats clearly has the best chance of forming some kind of government.

However, that would most likely be in a minority situation similar to the minority Stephen Harper Conservative governments after the 2006 and 2008 elections, whose existence was in peril with every potential non-confidence vote.

But what about a coalition like we saw in Saskatchewan in 1999? Well, it’s technically possible, but tough to pull it together.

Desperate to avoid being wiped out in another election that could have happened soon after the seemingly inconclusive 1999 results, Melenchuk accepted then-ndp premier Roy Romanow’s invitation in joining in a “coalition.”

The problem for the remaining Liberals, however, is they had no real bargaining chips to play in joining the NDP because by that point they were rather philosophically similar to the governing Romanow NDP.

For example, Liberal healthcare funding demands were too similar to NDP policy, making it look like the Liberals simply amalgamated with the Saskatchewan NDP for the price of a few cabinet posts. As it turned out, the two remaining Liberals (Melenchuk and Ron Osika) in the “coalition” government did run as New Democrats in 2003. Both lost.

Saskatchewan has not elected a Liberal MLA since 1999 — surely a warning to anyone contemplating becoming a minority coalition partner after Monday. What would be the future of Greens or New Democrats in the next election who propped up a Justin Trudeau Liberal minority government, especially if Scheer’s Conservatives win the most seats? But governing with anything short of a clear majority is problematic for Scheer. It would be impossible for the Conservatives to govern with the NDP or Greens because of carbon tax policy and pipelines.

That leaves the Bloc Quebecois as the only other potential partner, but it would be untenable for the West-based, pro-oil Conservative party to strike a deal with the pro-quebec BQ. Likely, it would be a poison pill for either the Conservatives or Liberals to sign a deal with the separatist-based party.

Present-day federal politics suggests few options for a workable coalition, and past Saskatchewan history suggests a workable coalition is highly improbable.