For Trudeau, more communication with opposition parties will be key
During his first press conference after last week’s election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged that his Liberal minority government would work with the opposition.
Canadians “sent a clear message that they expect us as government to work with the other parties on these issues that matter to them and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.”
Trudeau will need the support of other parties — or at least their agreement not to vote against him — to pass legislation and survive confidence votes. But a look back at Canada’s recent minority Parliaments shows there are different ways to achieve this.
Canadians elected three minority governments in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the first led by Liberal prime minister Paul Martin and the latter two by Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Each operated quite differently, based on the strength of the minority, the state of the opposition parties and the political context of the time.
“Parties emerge (from the election) with different strengths and weaknesses. Some may be broke, some leaders may be under significant fire,” said Geoff Norquay, director of communications for Harper during Martin’s government. “Parties individually or collectively may have absolutely no interest in toppling the government and forcing another election.”
In 2004, the Liberals under Martin won a minority with 135 seats, well shy of the 155 needed for a majority at the time. The Liberals and NDP together held 154 seats, while the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and one independent MP held the other 154. “The whole Parliament was going to be balanced on a razor’s edge,” said Norquay.
As a result, he said, the government was “very catch-as-catch-can,” with frequent one-on-one meetings and phone calls between party leaders, and relationships that shifted “day-to-day, minute-to-minute.”
Martin’s government was also weakened by the fallout from the sponsorship scandal and the ongoing Gomery inquiry. Sensing an opportunity, Harper, then leader of the opposition, moved to defeat the Liberals on their budget bill in the spring of 2005. To save his government, Martin struck a deal with the NDP, under former leader Jack Layton, which included $4.6 billion in additional spending on social programs.
“Certainly Martin was under enormous pressure and Jack was very good at seizing opportunity,” said Libby Davies, NDP House leader from 2003 to 2011.
Later that year, however, the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc would work together to bring down the government on a non-confidence motion, launching the election that would bring Harper’s Conservatives to power.
On Jan. 23, 2006, the Conservatives won 124 seats, the smallest minority since Confederation. Despite that, Harper’s first government would have a distinctly different flavour from Martin’s. “The Liberals at the time were very weak,” said Davies. The Conservatives could therefore count on at least tacit support from the Liberals, who wanted to avoid another election, she said. That left the NDP with significantly less leverage than it had under Martin.
Harper frequently dared the Liberals to defeat him, including after a throne speech in 2007 in which he declared Canada would not meet emissions-reduction targets set out in the Kyoto Protocol. Liberal leader Stéphane Dion criticized the speech but would not bring the government down over it. On that vote and several others, the Liberals abstained from voting.
Trudeau’s current situation bears some similarity to that first Harper minority. Nobody will want another election anytime soon, Norquay said — the Bloc and the NDP can’t afford it and Andrew Scheer’s future as Conservative leader is unclear. “Given the fact that no opposition party or leader is going to be interested in another election for at least two years, the prime minister has a strong hand,” he said.
But that doesn’t mean Trudeau will have free rein. “Given the fractures in the country that were exposed and exacerbated by the election, the shutout in Alberta and Saskatchewan … the resurgence of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec … there are a number of significant constraints on Mr. Trudeau,” said Norquay.
There is, too, the potential for something unexpected to befall this government, such as a recession. After winning his second minority mandate in 2008, Harper was nearly defeated by a coalition of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois, who were concerned about the government’s response to a looming global recession. After proroguing Parliament to avoid an election, Harper struck a more conciliatory tone, including a plan for billions in stimulus spending.
Regardless of the strength of the Liberals’ minority, Davies said, they will need to remember they no longer have a majority, and that will require more communication with the opposition parties. “I think the personalities of the key players is very important,” she said, pointing to the party leaders, chiefs of staff, House leaders and whips.
“There has to be some sense that this is a different political environment and a different political situation,” she said. “If they want to make it work, they have to work at it.”
mforrest@postmedia.com