Expect the unexpected at impeachment trial
And so it begins. After years of investigation, months of deliberation, weeks of negotiation and hours of anticipation, here it is: the impeachment trial of Donald John Trump, 45th president of the United States.
Oh, we knew this day would come. It did not happen as we imagined a year or so ago. The case against Trump, we thought, would surely rest on Robert Mueller’s findings. It would stem from his involvement with the Russians in the election of 2016 and his desire to discredit his opponent, Hillary Clinton.
Now it is something entirely different, something no one imagined even six months ago. It focuses on Trump’s involvement with the Ukrainians in the election of 2020 and his desire to discredit his likely opponent, Joe Biden.
The Republicans and their acolytes on CNN love to say the Democrats have been trying to impeach Trump from the day he was inaugurated.
That’s ridiculous. Some renegade Democrats in the House did want to impeach Trump in 2017, in the way some Republicans in the House wanted to impeach Barack Obama in 2009. Neither had the support of their leadership.
Indeed, it was the opposite. Much as Democrats felt they had a case against Trump and much as they saw his venality, instability and ineptitude as a threat, they did not act. They did not think they could persuade the public.
It is remarkable how quickly and forcefully the case against Trump crystallized last autumn. It is said of the presidency that the office does not seek the man; the man (or woman) seeks the office.
Perversely, in 2020, we see impeachment seek the president as much as the president, in his brazen misconduct, seeks impeachment.
So the story of Trump’s passage to “impeachment for life” is not how we expected it. And the trial will not unfold as we expect it, either.
No one doubts the Senate will exonerate Trump. But watch how it happens, what it means and how the parties interpret it.
The first surprise will be defections among Republicans uncertain about re-election. These include Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha Mcsally of Arizona, and
Joni Ernst of Iowa. All have reasons to demand witnesses and a real trial. They must be seen to be impartial jurors.
Others may join them: Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Rob Portman of Ohio and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee. None loves Trump. They could defect out of fear for their reputation or the institution.
If senators vote to hear witnesses, such as John Bolton or Hunter Biden (who has no bearing on the guilt or innocence of the president), it would change the trial’s complexion.
What really matters is the court of public opinion. There, Trump remains in trouble.
Polls show a majority want him removed from office. In 1999, when Bill Clinton was on trial, public opinion strongly supported him. Americans saw his impeachment driven by rabid Republicans.
Today, Americans see the legitimacy and necessity of this process. They will be wary of a coverup by Republicans through a fast, shadowy trial. That will make things harder for Republican senators in trouble. While some may go all in for Trump, like Mcsally and Gardner, fearing primary challenges from the right, others may not care.
One other thing: if Mitch Mcconnell thinks the trial and its outcome could endanger his majority in the Senate (a switch of just three seats could do it), he will change tactics. If necessary, he will even allow a few Republicans in trouble to vote to remove Trump, giving the Democrats a moral victory.
Things can and do change. Two years ago, we were told that Nancy Pelosi was too old to be Speaker, that she could not manage her new caucus, that there would be no impeachment. We were told last month that she was wrong to delay sending the Senate the articles of impeachment, that the country would oppose the trial, that they would punish the Democrats.
There are surprises in politics. There will be surprises in this trial.