The power of the social conservatives

Movement could back several candidates

As the field for the 2020 Conservative leadership race takes shape, at least three candidates with socially conservative views are planning to get into the contest — and if history is any guide, they may eventually be in the position of kingmaker.

Conservative leadership front-runners have made it clear they want to move past questions about abortion and gay rights, but it won’t be easy in a race where social conservatives are looking to wield significant influence on the results, just as they did in the 2017 race that crowned Andrew Scheer.

Scheer received a large boost in support from the social conservatives who dropped off the ranked ballot in 2017, particularly from Brad Trost, who finished fourth. Doug Ford received a similar boost in the 2018 Ontario PC leadership race when Tanya Granic Allen dropped off the ballot.

The question for now is how many candidates can pass the first barrier to entry: 1,000 party signatures from at least seven provinces, along with a $25,000 registration fee.

In an interview, Trost stressed that social conservatives are not a monolithic bloc. Different organizations have different views and priorities. Some groups pass around signature sheets for multiple candidates in the hope they all get in; the more candidates there are, the more votes there are, and the more influence they have on the final result.

“You have to remember that social conservative movements and groups are not particularly married to one candidate,” said Trost, who is chairing the campaign of leadership contender Richard Décarie. “They believe in their issues and they’re fine with whoever can bring forward the issues.”

The candidate with the most experienced campaign staff so far is Décarie. But he sparked a huge controversy last week after going on national TV and claiming being gay is a choice. Trost, along with other staff members, is still firmly behind Décarie, but there is a very real chance the party will bar him from running.

Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis is also looking to get in the race and has the backing of Charles Mcvety, an outspoken social conservative and president of the Canada Christian College. Lewis has hired John Mykytyshyn as campaign manager and is progressing toward the first 1,000 signatures she needs.

The other candidate is rookie Tory MP Derek Sloan, who may be able to draw on his own network as a Seventh-day Adventist. Sources have said they understand Sloan is building a campaign team, but his campaign did not respond to requests for information.

The Campaign Life Coalition has given its endorsement to Décarie, Lewis and

Sloan. Other pro-life groups will likely help with signing up members and fundraising. Ultimately all three candidates would need $300,000 and 3,000 party signatures to get onto the final ballot, but it’s conceivable they all can do it.

Décarie worked as a political staffer in both Ottawa and Quebec City, but it’s another job that makes him valuable to the movement. Starting around 2008, Décarie was the public face of the Coalition for Freedom in Education (CFE), an organization somewhat akin to the sex-ed protest movement in Ontario.

The CFE fought against a Quebec education curriculum change that mandated schools to teach a secular religion and ethics class (replacing, for example, a Catholic-oriented course on religion). The CFE fought for the right of parents to opt out of the class.

At its height the CFE claimed it had 100,000 supporters in Quebec. Whether or not that number is accurate, CFE did hold multiple protests where it drew a few thousand people, according to news reports. If Décarie can still access some of that network, and pair it with networks in Ontario and elsewhere, it could be a powerful advantage. In the 2017 leadership race, some Quebec ridings had only a few dozen votes — but because of the equal weighting system, they counted the same as Alberta ridings with thousands of members.

Trost said there are few public figures in Quebec who advocate for social conservatives. “Richard reached out to them, he stood up for them when they had a problem with the provincial government,” Trost said. “So he’s actually a known force among the small community of social conservatives in Quebec.”

For all that, Décarie may have doomed himself with his televised claim that being gay is a choice. The leadership rules say candidates must support “the founding principles of the Party,” meaning the nominations committee has the power to decide if a candidate doesn’t. Some Conservatives have publicly called for that power to be used on Décarie.

SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE ... GROUPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MARRIED TO ONE CANDIDATE.