Budget expected to set tone for election in fall

Moe emphasizing infrastructure, NDP focuses on economic security

REGINA Premier Scott Moe is promising a budget with record infrastructure investment as MLAS return to Regina for what is expected to be the last legislative sitting before an election.

The Saskatchewan NDP, meanwhile, is pre-emptively casting it as a budget of fictions and making its own pre-campaign pitch to voters that puts greater weight on economic security.

But the sitting that begins on Monday could be rocked by outside events — like court rulings or a potential global downturn — that are beyond the control of either party.

Speaking in Estevan on Friday, Moe said the budget due on March 18 will be the centrepiece of the sitting.

“It will be a budget where we continue to grow on the strengths of Saskatchewan,” he said.

“You are going to see a record amount of infrastructure investment in that budget,” he added. “You’re going to see investment in provincial infrastructure ... such as schools, hospitals and highways.”

Political scientist Jim Farney said avoiding a deficit will be an overwhelming priority for the government.

“They’ve been promising left, right and centre that it’s going to be balanced,” he said. “So I’d expect that. The question is how they get there.”

Farney expects few pre-election goodies in the budget, though he said he thinks the government might try to protect its flanks in areas like health and education, which have been frequent targets for Opposition attack.

“In political terms, to me it’s enough if they get to balance,” he said. “That’s enough to run on, and then they can make a promise of ‘going forward, we’ll reinvest.’”

NDP Leader Ryan Meili said Saskatchewan people should ignore a 2020-21 budget that, in his view, will be a mirage.

“This budget is not what really matters,” he said. “The 2020 budget is the Sask. Party’s pre-election, make-nice-with-the-people budget. The budget that matters is the 2021 budget.”

He said cuts in Ontario and Alberta are examples of what voters can expect if they give the Saskatchewan Party another mandate.

“We need people to understand that, whatever nice things they might appear to do in this budget, the next budget is the one that they’re coming with serious cuts,” he said.

Meili views the upcoming sitting as a chance for “making our pitch to the Saskatchewan people, both about what’s wrong with the Sask. Party and why a change is needed, as well as just exactly what that change would look like.”

He signalled that the NDP will tread on familiar terrain, with critiques of crowded classrooms and hallway medicine.

But he also hinted at a greater emphasis on bread-and-butter issues like earnings, jobs and the economy.

“Now we get to build on that and focus more on some of the ways in which the Sask. Party’s handling of the economy has not just slowed down growth and made things worse for businesses, but is making it really, really hard for so many people to make ends meet,” said Meili.

Farney said that could be a good strategy for a party that needs to capture middle-class votes in vital suburban ridings.

“They have to be more than just the party of people who use or are employed by the public service, and that probably makes sense to play up more,” he said.

At the same time, Farney warned that the approach could backfire if it further complicates NDP messaging that has at times seemed jumbled.

“They have really struggled to be able to articulate a clear vision and a clear reason to vote for them,” said Farney.

Moe, meanwhile, is entering the campaign with what Farney called “huge advantages,” though a lot could still go off script.

Farney said the biggest uncertainties hinge on national and international events that could shake up party narratives.

With the Supreme Court on March 24 set to hear an appeal of Saskatchewan’s carbon tax reference case, one of Moe’s favourite political cudgels is on shifting ground.

There’s also the threat of a shaky global economy that could get worse in light of the novel coronavirus, which is causing oil prices to plunge.

Another big unknown is in Moe’s control. There are swirling rumours about a spring election call that Meili says is “a very real possibility.”

Though Moe has refused to rule out an early election, he said that his party continues to plan for October.

Farney said he doubts an early election would be worth the political heat the government would take for ignoring its fixed election law.

The spring sitting is also the time to wrap up legislative business the government began in the fall.

There are 31 bills still before the legislature but few are ambitious enough to grab many headlines.

The parties will instead try to score points in question period.

If the NDP makes the economy a greater battleground, both will have plenty of numbers to use as artillery.

Meili pointed to recent earnings data from Statistics Canada that show Saskatchewan had the lowest wage growth of any province over the past two years.

The government can retort that the trend has been far better if only the last year is considered, with Saskatchewan the third best in weekly earnings growth over that period.

The NDP is also emphasizing “skyrocketing” bankruptcies and high rates of child poverty, as well as weaknesses in sectors like construction the Opposition connects to Sask. Party tax changes.

But the government has repeatedly boasted about positive yearon-year job growth for 18 months straight.

Unemployment sits at 6.0 per cent, while private sector forecasts from December predict provincial growth of about 1.2 per cent this year in real terms.