Political winds finally filling Biden’s sails
Joe Biden’s hope for Super Tuesday was less to win it than to survive it. He had to emerge from the biggest contest of the season with momentum enough to reach more favourable ground in contests next week and beyond — and to continue to run up the score there.
Today, in a political resurrection for the ages, Biden is suddenly the front-runner for the presidential nomination of the Democratic party. It is an astonishing reversal of fortune for the former vice-president, whose poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire a month ago had written his political obituary.
Super Tuesday has changed all that. It has narrowed the field and clarified the choice, setting up a struggle between two battle-scarred septuagenarians: a folksy centrist who says he wants “results” and a democratic socialist who says he wants “revolution.”
This may last weeks. Or months. In a campaign of surprises, prophecy has been the biggest casualty.
After weeks of hysteria among Democrats over a fragmented field, the prospect of a brokered convention and the rise of an “unelectable” outsider, Super Tuesday has created a tidy new political order: Joe Biden is up, Bernie Sanders is down and Mike Bloomberg is out.
For Biden, the victory was staggering. He won 10 of 14 states, including North Carolina, Virginia and Texas, the second-biggest prize. When the counting is done, Biden is expected to lead in delegates.
This was a fantasy a fortnight ago. His campaign was listless, his crowds thin, his money tight. On the stump — I watched him closely in New Hampshire — he rambled, shambled and shuffled. He was Uncle Joe out of Petticoat Junction. It looked like an ignominious end for him.
South Carolina saved him. He always knew that he alone, in a broad field, could win black voters, the bedrock of the Democratic party.
So, he barnstormed through the Palmetto State and won the endorsement, among others, of Congressman Jim Clyburn, an icon of the African-american community. On Feb. 29, he won the state in a landslide.
And so began his magical ride. Over the following feverish 72 hours, he won critical endorsements from Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, two leading moderates who left the race. He held an audacious election-eve rally in Dallas. He made a dash to California. His bumbling campaign was now a master class in the political arts.
The truly astonishing thing about Biden’s comeback is that he had less money than Sanders and Bloomberg and almost no ground game. In some states, he had no field offices. He won on the strength of earned media and his reputation, appealing to moderates, women, suburbanites and the elderly.
For Sanders, Super Tuesday was a defeat. He won California — though Biden will garner a fair share of its 415 delegates — as well as Colorado and Vermont, his home state. But his victories were smaller than in 2016. Worse, he lost Oklahoma, Minnesota and Massachusetts.
That has been story of his campaign: Despite support from Latinos and young people, Sanders has not generated higher turnout. His coalition isn’t growing. His momentum has stalled.
In the struggle between the establishmentarian and the maverick, the latter is waning. As the race moves to Illinois, Arizona, Florida and Ohio, Sanders will be hardpressed to make new gains.
His movement is real but its range is limited, perhaps extending to no more than one-third of the party. His revolution will be televised, yes, but its broadcast delayed indefinitely.
For Bloomberg, Super Tuesday was a failure. He had a lousy return on his investment of $500 million. He claimed one Super Tuesday victory — American Samoa — and a smattering of delegates. He has now withdrawn.
Moderates can rally around Biden. The only other contender is Elizabeth Warren, on the left. Having lost her own state of Massachusetts, she too will consider quitting, which may help Sanders.
But it may be too late. To win, Sanders will have to broaden his appeal in the face of a swelling centrism among Democrats, who want desperately to defeat Donald Trump. After auditioning others, they’ve found their tribune in Joe Biden, finally, and created a juggernaut around him. Cohen is a journalist, professor and author of Two Days in June: John F. Kennedy and the 48 Hours That Made History.