Pandemic could bring changes to campaign trail

Saskatoon Mayor Charlie Clark launched his ultimately successful bid for city hall’s top job in front of hundreds of supporters packed into a room at the Delta Bessborough hotel.

Clark, a longtime councillor, milled around after the rally to shake hands with and hug supporters. That happened on May 18, 2016.

About a week after Clark’s announcement, incumbent mayor Don Atchison, who had already indicated his intention to run for reelection, held a fundraising dinner at Prairieland Park.

Despite today’s start for the provincial government’s incremental plan to reopen Saskatchewan’s economy, there’s still no date for the lifting of the 10-person limit on gatherings.

Under Phase 3 of the plan, which does not yet have a date attached, the number of people permitted to gather is expected to expand to 15. Under Phase 4, gatherings can expand to 30, but we don’t know when that will happen either.

For those wondering about the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic will affect the municipal elections later this year, they’re already being affected.

The events that mark our democracy — campaign launches, rallies and fundraisers — are all verboten under the current restrictions designed to prevent the spread of the deadly virus.

This year’s Saskatoon mayoral contest had been shaping up as a race between Clark and former Saskatchewan Party cabinet minister and Saskatoon MLA Rob Norris, with the possibility of an Atchison candidacy.

Norris told CBC News last month that he’d paused the launch of his campaign due to the pandemic. Clark has offered no clue on whether he will seek reelection; Atchison has apparently taken a vow of silence on his intentions.

Announcing a campaign at the moment would seem crass. But how long do you wait?

That’s true of those seeking to challenge for spots on council, too, with every indication all 10 incumbents in Saskatoon intend to run again.

This ranks as an important election, though, with spending priorities much more important given what is expected to be a severe cash crunch due to the pandemic.

COVID-19 already derailed Premier Scott Moe’s plans for a snap spring provincial election.

Next up on the election calendar is voting in Saskatchewan’s 41 resort villages on July 25.

They hold these elections in the summer because people who own cabins are allowed to vote.

The provincial government is consulting with resort villages on the election, but those wishing to campaign for office have already undoubtedly had their plans altered.

So what will municipal elections planned for Nov. 9 look like? Nobody knows, but a traditional campaign seems doubtful.

More voting could be conducted by mail. And, as it stands right now, the municipal campaign will overlap with the Oct. 26 provincial election.

Moe repeatedly pointed out that he retains the right to call an election earlier than Oct. 26 — prior to his March statement that a spring provincial election had been shelved.

All of these factors seem to point to a huge advantage for incumbents. Perhaps not, though.

If campaigns are conducted largely online because gatherings are banned, that could level the playing field for challengers.

Incumbents have an obscene advantage in fundraising, receiving most of the corporate donations and virtually all of the money from public service unions.

But what are candidates going to spend it on in a virtual campaign? Signs and billboards would appear to be a bit of a waste if people aren’t driving around and still mostly staying home.

If fundraising events are not allowed or unlikely to draw people still skittish about gatherings, that could encourage unknown candidates in a contest where, sadly, name recognition plays too large a role.

Saskatoon mayoral challenger Kelley Moore gained significant traction in the 2016 election using online tools available to all. But she ultimately finished behind both Clark and Atchison, who boasted campaign war chests of about $200,000 each.

Saskatoon city council voted down an attempt to ban union and corporate donations during this term by its usual 6-5 margin.

Perhaps the pandemic can achieve where council failed — reducing the influence of money in campaigns.