DID SOMEONE SAY SNAP ELECTION?
There won’t be a better time for PM to call vote
Ivison, NP3
Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte’s recent experience should act as a warning to anyone reading too much into opinion polls during a national crisis.
At the height of the country’s COVID outbreak, 94 per cent of Italians supported Conte’s measures and 71 per cent approved of him personally.
Yet, as the health emergency has receded like a flood and revealed the underlying economic devastation, that consensus has dissolved. His critics now charge Conte is incapable of managing an economic emergency he helped create.
A similar collapse in support has occurred in France, where Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings have fallen because of concerns over low levels of testing and contact tracing, amid shortages of personal protective equipment and high levels of mortality in long-term care homes.
Those examples from countries further along the COVID curve suggest nobody should get too excited about a Leger poll this week that had the Liberals at 44 per cent support, compared to just 25 per cent for the Conservatives. The poll also said a majority trust Justin Trudeau and 77 per cent are satisfied with his government’s response to the pandemic.
Darrell Bricker, a pollster at Ipsos Canada, tweeted that polling of political parties support today is “meaningless” because partisanship has been suspended while voters get behind the government’s recovery plan.
As he pointed out, all governments are hitting historic highs right now. Strictly speaking, that might be true when it comes to the precise numbers. But, they are indicative of the general mood.
As American poet Maya Angelou put it, while people might forget what you said or did, they will never forget how you made them feel.
This crisis might have been tailored to play to Trudeau’s strengths. The response requires empathy and understanding, backed by billions of dollars — a sense that the prime minister feels the pain of the people he serves, even if he is inoculated from it in reality. Those who have benefited from government support are unlikely to overlook it any time soon.
Meanwhile, the prime minister’s political opponents have allowed themselves to be portrayed as heartless, out of touch and inept.
The gun issue is a case in point. The Liberal “ban” may be “incoherent”, in the words of one gun retailer, since it prohibits some semi-automatic weapons but not others, such as the standard issue rifle used by the People’s Liberation Army of China. It also ignores handguns, the weapon of choice in 60 per cent of firearm offences.
Yet Conservative support for what Trudeau called “military style” weapons is a losing proposition in cities, where the party needs to make gains.
Keith Beardsley, a former senior adviser to Stephen Harper, said if he were advising Trudeau, he’d suggest calling a snap election while Andrew Scheer is still Conservative leader.
That’s not likely to happen while COVID cases are still on the rise. There’s opportunism and then there’s naked exploitation.
But former NDP leader Tom Mulcair had a similar thought in his Sun newspaper column. He suggested Trudeau was testing campaign lines during a recent TV appearance.
He pointed out that a prime minister can resign at any time and claim he needs a new mandate to confront the economic predicament facing the country. Mulcair noted that Trudeau has created $10,000 of new debt for every man, woman and child in Canada but he knows there will be another election before he has to bring in new taxes to start dealing with it.
That does not seem unreasonable speculation. One of Trudeau’s senior advisers dismissed such thoughts. “You clearly have too much time on your hands,” he said, adding he didn’t see an election this fall.
Maybe not. But one day, the health emergency will turn into an economic crunch that will likely require tax increases. One day, there will be audits on government initiatives that, inevitably, will unearth massive misspending. One day, memories of government largesse will fade, as the headlines are dominated with bad news. One day, the Conservatives will do the right thing, having tried everything else. And one day, voters will be gripped with a burning desire to turf the prime minister from office.
Wouldn’t Trudeau like to secure another majority before that day comes? Of course he would.
THERE’S OPPORTUNISM AND THEN THERE’S NAKED EXPLOITATION.