POTENTIAL COVID PEAK IN FALL.
Tam warns of stress from other illnesses
OTTAWA • Federal health officials are preparing for surges in new cases of COVID-19, including an expected peak of the outbreak this fall that could temporarily exceed the ability of the health-care system to cope.
As Canada continues to reopen and as more people gather together indoors, including in schools, the federal government is planning for a “reasonable worst-case scenario.”
National modelling projections released Friday show an expected peak in cases this fall, followed by ongoing ups and downs, which chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says could overwhelm health systems in different parts of the country.
That’s why health officials across Canada are now getting ready for outbreaks that could surpass the highest spikes of the virus experienced in March and April, to ensure they’re ready for the worst.
“It’s preparing for — something could happen to this virus, who knows? Something could change,” Tam told reporters Friday in Ottawa.
“We don’t know the seasonality of this virus. It’s continued throughout the summer, that’s for sure, but what if it demonstrates a certain type of acceleration under certain conditions?”
Canada is better prepared than it was when the pandemic first hit the country this spring, she said, but officials are now planning for the likelihood of concurrent outbreaks of seasonal influenza, other respiratory illnesses and COVID-19 this fall and winter.
“We are over-planning beyond what we had for the previous wave and I think that’s the prudent thing to do,” Tam said.
“This planning scenario is to get all of our partners up and down the health system to over-plan.”
Data released Friday suggests the number of cases by Aug. 23 could be as high as 127,740 and the number of deaths could reach as high as 9,115.
It also shows “peaks and valleys” of outbreaks are expected to continue in Canada until January 2022.
Continuing to build up capacity within the health system, while encouraging people to follow best public health practices, will give Canada the best chance of keeping the epidemic on a “slow burn,” Tam said, while also preparing for a need to quickly ramp up response measures if case numbers spike.
One method to stop large outbreaks is to ensure that people who are infected can be identified and quarantined as soon as possible, Tam said. That’s why officials believe the COVID-19 exposure mobile application will be an important tool.