MOE CLINCHES MAJORITY
Sask. Party wins fourth straight election as NDP fails to make big gains Differences between Moe and Meili evident in vote
The differences between Scott Moe's Saskatchewan Party and Ryan Meili's NDP go well beyond that difference in seats still being tallied after Monday's election.
Both may have come from a farm, but that's about where their similarities end. One stayed on the farm, remaining immersed in Saskatchewan's traditional and rural conservative values that seemed to serve him well Monday as his Sask. Party was on its way, as of deadline, to a fourth straight majority aided by a strong showing in the 29 “rural seats” in the 61-seat legislature.
The other left the farm to become a family doctor and urban social activist who on Monday night — after his third attempt at the NDP leadership — led his party to another opposition placing.
Monday revealed the massive gap in how the Saskatchewan voters perceive the two men and their parties — an unprecedented 66 per cent support in the early vote-share numbers. It was a display of the dominant support the Sask. Party enjoys among the rural/resources/business crowds. Notwithstanding social and economic challenges we all face as we emerge from this pandemic, Sask. Party support was unfazed.
This produced a Sask. Party election night win of historic proportions — a fourth consecutive “unaided” majority government in this province that Saskatchewan hasn't seen since the Tommy Douglas Co-operative Commonwealth Federation six decades ago. (The Roy Romanow/lorne Calvert four-term run came with the help of an Ndp-liberal coalition in 1999.)
Why this really happened may be the most pertinent difference between the two: It all has to do with how they were embraced by their respective parties.
With the 23 sitting MLAS supporting his leadership bid. Moe weaved his way through the cheering crowd on Jan. 27, 2018 after taking the Sask. Party leadership on the fifth ballot. It could have been a moment of division in a party that saw a feisty challenger from outside caucus, Alanna Koch, who was supported by many who supported the charismatic outgoing leader Brad Wall, but this party quickly came together. A lasting image from that day was Moe being embraced by leadership contenders Gord Wyant and Tina Beaudry-mellor, now deputy premier and innovation minister, respectively. Immediately after defeating Trent Wotherspoon in a much lower-key NDP leadership race on March 2, 2018, Meili faced questions from the media on supporting the carbon tax and the leftist approach of past NDP leaders. A lasting image is what you did not see on camera — a group of the NDP caucus (most of whom had supported Wotherspoon) siting exhausted at the table off to side.
How effectively Moe pulled together the Sask. Party team compared with the struggles Meili faced with NDP ranks may be the big story behind Monday night.
There has been an unwavering buy-in to Moe's hammering of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and all things Liberal — even from those supposedly from the “Liberal” side of the party that came into existence 23 yeas ago as a Progressive Conservative/liberal “coalition.”
That buy-in afforded the Sask. Party not only an ability to present a cohesive message, but also the opportunity to get to work: There were 39 Sask. Party incumbent MLAS running Monday including 18 cabinet ministers; new candidates were quickly nominated with few hiccups; lots of money raised for election fight, and; an effective organization installed to get out the vote.
Yes, there was “Kate from the Sask. Party” texting you for months in advance to identify the vote. Given the large advancedpoll and mail-in vote in the pandemic, it's hard not to think that made a difference.
By contrast, Meili struggled to get candidates and constituency organizations in place and, more importantly, getting both the caucus and the old guard of the NDP to buy in. And Meili struggled Monday night, behind in his own Saskatoon Meewasin riding,
Nothing really changed after the Oct. 14 debate and the Leader-post/angus Reid Poll that saw a 27-percentage point narrowed to the point where it looked like Meili and the NDP might pick up additional city seats.
But maybe the biggest difference between Scott Moe and Ryan Meili is, for Meili, things didn't come together soon enough.