What the next four years could look like
Making good on that pledge hinges on continued growth in revenue
The Saskatchewan Party ran on both the past and the future in this election.
Party leader Scott Moe touted the growth in Saskatchewan since the party first won election in 2007, while laying out a road map for what the next four years will look like.
The party promised huge reductions in revenue over the first half of its mandate through tax cuts, tax credits and a 10-per-cent rebate on Saskpower bills.
Moe also made another key pledge: to balance the budget by 2024 without relying on spending cuts or tax hikes.
“Our record is one of growth,” Moe told supporters at a campaign rally in Regina last week. “Our record is one of more people, more jobs and much more opportunity.”
Meeting the promise to balance the budget without raising taxes or cutting deeply relies on continued growth in revenue over the next four years. That increase is expected to come from a combination of resource revenues, federal transfer payments and collecting more taxes.
In other words, the party's platform is pinned on continued growth.
Revenue is expected to rise from about $14 billion in the current budget to nearly $17 billion in 2024 — an increase of nearly $3 billion.
Spending is forecast to increase under the party's plan, but by a much smaller amount, from about $16.2 billion this year to $16.8 billion in four years. That's an increase of about $600 million.
That difference amounts to $2.4 billion, higher than this year's spending deficit of about $2.2 billion.
A kink in the plan could come if the province's population does not grow as expected.
Population growth has generally not been a problem since former premier Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan
Party swept to power in 2007. As Moe repeated many times on the campaign trail, the province added 170,000 people in the last 13 years.
But a troubling sign came amid the election campaign, and the NDP was happy to pounce on it amid a constant barrage of messaging that depicted the former governing party as one of decline.
The quarterly population estimate from Statistics Canada this summer showed a slight decline for the first time in 14 years. Saskatchewan was joined only by Newfoundland as provinces with a drop in population as of July.
Moe addressed the decrease during a campaign stop in Saskatoon last week, saying Saskatchewan kept more of its economy open during the pandemic than others.
“I find those concerning,” Moe admitted of the population statistics. “But I also see the opportunity that this province has and how we are poised to seize that opportunity, how we are poised today with the lowest unemployment in the nation because of what Saskatchewan people have done.”
The Saskatchewan Party pitched a platform valued at $848.8 million. The largest chunk of that goes to the Saskpower rebate, which will cost $87.2 million in the current budget and $174.4 million in 2021-22.
The next-largest item is a tax cut for small businesses that, over the next four years, is expected to be worth $24 million, $84 million, $52.5 million and $10.5 million.
The home renovation tax credit costs $68.9 million in the next budget and $55.1 million the year after that.
The most substantial ongoing spending in the party's platform is $18.4 million a year to hire aides for home care and long-term care facilities. There's also $8.4 million a year to reduce ambulance costs for seniors.
The Saskatchewan Party made an overt appeal to older adults with these measures.
Pre-election polling strongly indicated that a majority of Saskatchewan voters would reject the NDP, which has a higher-spending platform, proposing an additional $2.7 billion in expenditures with a vague plan to balance the budget early in a second term.
The Saskatchewan Party bashed the NDP platform as reckless with no plan to balance the budget. Moe also surprised NDP Leader Ryan Meili at the only televised leaders' debate with a claim that the NDP failed to include $4 billion in spending in its costing.
The NDP disputed Moe's figures, but Moe continued to cite the alleged budget hole during campaign appearances.
Saskatchewan voters were expected to opt for continuity, even though this is Moe's first election as party leader. Moe became leader and premier two and a half years ago.
He took over after the retirement of Wall, who led the Saskatchewan Party to impressive majority re-election wins in 2011 and 2016 that solidified the party's standing in cities and marginalized the NDP Opposition.
Wall signalled his intention to quit in the summer of 2017 after his government dropped a bombshell budget in the spring.
That budget eliminated the Saskatchewan Transportation Company bus service, raised the provincial sales tax to six per cent and unexpectedly slashed some grants-in-lieu to municipalities.
The following year, both the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP selected new leaders.
Meili warned throughout the campaign of cuts under Moe, which may have failed to resonate far beyond the party's base, despite the history of the Saskatchewan Party government's 2017 budget.
At the launch of the Saskatchewan Party platform at the Remai Modern art gallery in Saskatoon, Moe refused to answer questions about what he will do should revenue projections fall short. He dismissed the questions as “hypothetical.”
Meili made the Saskatchewan Party's alleged secret agenda to impose deep spending cuts a central plank in the NDP campaign.
Moe and the Saskatchewan Party must now move the province forward during an unprecedented health crisis that has also dealt a severe blow to government finances.
Former Saskatchewan NDP finance minister Janice Mackinnon declined an interview request for this story, but she forwarded a paper she prepared this month for the Public Policy Forum.
Mackinnon's article offered governments advice on how to proceed, given the challenges presented by the pandemic.
“Tackling mounting deficits must not produce measures that discourage economic growth and investment,” Mackinnon wrote. “Similarly, protecting the vulnerable must not produce programs that are so generous that they disincentivize returning to work, which is fundamental to kick-starting the economy.
“As well as balancing key priorities, governments should focus in laserlike fashion on the economic and fiscal challenges and be courageous enough to delay other less urgent priorities.”
I also see the opportunity that this province has and how we are poised to seize that opportunity ... with the lowest unemployment in the nation.