Obliviousness to COVID-19 reality dangerous
In a sad and all-too-real way, it was a Monday morning similar to most any other Monday morning since that long ago five weeks ago when the Saskatchewan Party won its fourth consecutive majority mandate.
Monday was the opening of the first session of Saskatchewan's 29th legislature with the speech from the throne — presumably a time of optimism and excitement as seemed the theme of last week's 2020-21 mid-year budget update all about how much better the revenue numbers were than expected.
Unfortunately, all this is remarkably detached from Saskatchewan's current COVID-19 reality where the weekend numbers showed 351 more cases Sunday after 197 cases Saturday.
Just another Monday after a bad weekend? Shouldn't we acknowledge that we're doing better than neighbouring Alberta and Manitoba whose numbers are far worse in both per capita cases and deaths?
Sure, we're doing better than our neighbours, but that now means speeding on an icy highway beside two runaway freight trains.
Worse, you get the impression that Premier Scott Moe and his government seem unaware that what they continue to do is dangerous.
We woke up this Monday morning having witnessed 1,766 new cases between this Sunday and the Sunday before — a seven-day average of 252 new cases a day. Let's compare:
Last Monday, after the week of Nov. 15-22, we saw 1,472 new cases for an average of 210 new cases a day. The previous week (Nov. 8-15, municipal election week) saw 1,104 cases or 158 a day. The week before (Nov. 1-8) saw 697 new cases or an average of 97 a day. The week Oct. 25-Nov. 1, provincial election week) saw 498 new cases or 71 a day.
The week of Oct. 18-25 (the last week of the campaign) saw 390 cases or 56 a day. The week of Oct. 11-18 (week of the leaders' debate in which Moe rejected mandatory masks) saw 238 cases or an average of 34 a day. The week of Oct. 4-11 (the first week of the campaign) saw 133 new cases or 19 a day. And the week of September 27- Oct. 4 (when the campaign was called) saw 97 new cases or 12 a day.
What also seems to have snuck up on the government is COVID-19 hospitalizations (seven on Sept. 27, 33 on Nov. 1 and 115 as of Sunday.) and deaths (24 on Sept. 27, 33 on Nov. 1 and 45 as of Sunday.)
This is no surprise. The modelling numbers showed this was coming.
Numbers released on Nov. 20 show a nightmare scenario of 469,000 COVID-19 cases (8,390 a day) in the next six months producing 4,800 deaths that would overwhelm the health system with 677 daily hospital admissions and 1,330 people simultaneously on ventilators.
Instead, most people — especially those in the Sask. Party government — seemed comforted by the best-case notions of a mere 4,830 cases in the next six months
... providing 60 per cent of us wore masks all the time and weekly gatherings were limited to five people, bar and restaurant capacity was cut to a quarter and we only went shopping once a week.
Well, a mere 10 days ago when this modelling was announced, there were 5,804 cumulative COVID-19 cases — 2,435 cases fewer of the total 8,239 Saskatchewan cases as of Sunday.
In just the past 10 days, we've managed to hit half the total new cases in our best-case modelling number for the next six months (183 days).
Yet there has been remarkable obliviousness to this reality as was evident in Finance Minister Donna Harpauer's 2020-21 midyear budget update showing a $2-billion deficit — $382 million less than in the June budget presentation and even $86 million less than the first quarter update.
“Our recovery has been relatively strong,” Harpauer said.
Strong recovery? With 30 per cent of Saskatchewan's COVID-19 cases occurring in the past 10 days? A strong recovery when we are seriously considering military help or activating field hospitals? How about financial help for small business to safely operate or even something close?
Saskatchewan's weekly COVID-19 cases have increased 20-fold since the legislature was dissolved for the election campaign. Monday needed to be much, much more. It wasn't.