The devil in the blue dress
Canada’s Conservative Party bucked a global trend in conservative politics last week by eschewing the libertarian tilt of presumed leadership favourite Maxime Bernier and chose instead an aesthetic makeover in the form of the pleasant, but reactionary Andrew Scheer as successor to Stephen Harper and Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. In doing so, Conservative members avoided the shift in Party direction portended by the flamboyant and outspoken former cabinet minister and Beauce MP Bernier.
In voting for Scheer, who served under Harper as Canada’s youngest Speaker of the House, a number of things became clear. In the first place, by choosing a devoted social conservative, the membership showed that it had not learned any particular lessons from its defeat in the 2015 election and that the party had no real interest in any major policy shifts and preferred instead to believe, apparently, that Canadians would ultimately come to their senses and appreciate the very policies they have only recently just rejected. Clearly, Conservatives believe that the country’s infatuation with young Justin is wearing thin and that it will eventually send the country back along the path represented so forcefully by Scheer’s predecessor. Essentially, the party chose to present the same approach with brand-new packaging in hopes it would make a better sell. We have, of course, yet to see if this is an accurate assessment, hallucinatory wishful thinking, or something in between. There is reason to believe any of the above.
Essentially, Scheer presents a more likeable face to Reform-conservative thinking in terms of issues like diversity, women’s reproductive rights, religious tolerance, the environment, and civil and personal liberties. He does not represent any radical shift from the previous government in these key issues and has not really demonstrated any shift away from other key Harper positions. He is in fact, in the too-easy cliché already circulating, an expression of ‘Harper lite.’
On the other hand his very narrowly defeated chief opponent Bernier represented another kind of conservatism entirely, the kind that accentuates minimal government, minimum taxation, and minimal government interference in individual lives and in the market place. By advocating an almost complete withdrawal from government social and economic engineering, Bernier offered pivotal changes not only in the way society is allowed to unfold, but also an abandonment of government subsidies for businesses and industries that otherwise might face severe challenges in the marketplace. Unlike the Harperites, Bernier belief in small government included the elimination or reduction of government ‘handouts’ in all its forms. As a Quebecer, he courageously denounced the federal government’s largesse towards Bombardier, the province’s industrial darling, for example, thereby incurring the wrath of many in his province. He also stood strongly against supply-side management in dairy and other agricultural industries, leading him to lose his own riding in the race for the leadership. On the other hand, he did provide a meaningful alternative to the Harper direction that attracted many economic conservatives and which would have stimulated a meaningful debate within the party. Sadly for him, he also brought with him a history of titillating scandal and a previous affinity for Quebec independence – factors that may ultimately have cost him the leadership. His limited, but rapidly improving bilingualism may also have played a part, as Scheer himself has demonstrated his own exceptional competence in both official languages.
Despite few policy differences with his predecessor, many observers hope that Scheer, as a former Speaker, may have a more entrenched belief in the importance of Parliamentary decorum and that debates will be more ‘civilized’ and respectful, a belief that may be naïve, but is at least positive.
Scheer also enjoys considerable support within the Conservative caucus, a fact that will serve him well as he tries to prepare to tackle the Trudeau love-fest in 2019. In this, he may have to rely on the disappointment that many swept up in the Trudeau fervour of the last election are likely to feel as the promise of ‘Sunny Days’ has become more cloudy in recent days. Trudeau, a public relations dream, has successfully charmed a number of the world’s leaders (and their people) largely through the obvious contrast he displays to the current American President, who is surly, ignorant, boorish, and entirely out of his mettle not only on the global stage, but in any decent society. Without his billions and his celebrity, Donald Trump wouldn’t be allowed anywhere near respectable people and certainly wouldn’t be adorned with a power he doesn’t understand, is too lazy to learn, but which he nevertheless brandishes as if it were a magic entitlement wand.
To the surprise of many, Trudeau has stood up rather well publicly in the face of with the Trump ego, but has also been very careful to keep criticism of his American counterpart to a polite minimum, rather than the more appropriate responses of European allies like France and Germany, who have unabashedly displayed their utter contempt towards what they obviously believe is an unstable, unreliable, stubborn, infant-fool. The test, of course, will come over the anticipated renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which the Trumspter believes (usually) is grossly unfair to American business, despite the astounding economic contribution the agreement has brought to all participants. The president has no concept of ‘compromise’ other than as a synonym for ‘loser’ and sincerely believes that he should win every single instance of conflict that occurs inevitably within any agreement, be it marital or trade. It will be a true test of Canada’s bargaining power, assuming of course, that the President manages to keep himself, his immediate family, and a large portion of his administration out of prison, something which as yet is far from a certain thing.
It is possible that Scheer might find more in common with the American Whiner-in Chief than young Justin has – especially given the friendly relationship the latter enjoyed with the communistnazi-muslim-nigerian-militant gay former president Barack Obama – but that would ultimately require an obeisance not likely tolerable to the average Canadian given Trump’s arrogant insufferability. He might do better with Vice-president Mike Pence, who, like himself, represents a devil with a kinder face, but a devil nonetheless.
In the long run, the election of Andrew Scheer as Conservative leader represents not so much a change as a rematch in which the party is counting not so much on its own strengths, which are formidable, but on the declining fortunes and popularity of their main opponent. A wildcard in this game, however, is what the New Democratic Party decides to do in attempt to regain the glory it attained under Jack Layton and which was squandered by Thomas Mulcair, who proved too clever for his own good and who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the last election campaign. IN the meantime, Justin can probably sleep relatively easily.