What is the play for three tricks?

By Phillip Alder

Dave Kellett, the creator and cartoonist of the webcomics Sheldon and Drive, wrote, “The English language was carefully, carefully cobbled together by three blind dudes and a German dictionary.”

I doubt everyone — anyone? — would agree with that, but this deal needs to be played carefully, carefully by declarer to gain three diamond tricks.

North, who knew the partnership had 34 or 35 points between them, might as well have jumped straight to six no-trump. Using Gerber to check on aces was unnecessary. North-south could not be missing one ace and one king, and a grand slam rated to be at best on a finesse.

South has 11 top tricks: three spades, four hearts, two diamonds and two clubs. A minor-suit squeeze is possible, but unlikely. Instead, try to collect a third diamond trick. But how should declarer attempt to do that?

Since South can afford to lose one diamond trick, there are two possible plays. First, cash dummy’s king, then play low to the jack. Second, cash the ace, cross to dummy’s king and lead a third round toward declarer’s jack.

The difference in probability is not great. Finessing the jack succeeds whenever East has the queen, or West has a singleton queen (it drops under dummy’s king) or West has queen-third. That comes to approximately 69 percent.

Playing two rounds, then leading toward the jack, also works whenever East has the queen or West has a singleton queen or West has queen-third, but in addition it brings home the Speck when West has queen-doubleton (see the diagram). This improves the odds to 77 percent.