Worrisome signs

Undoubtedly, the year 2018 will go down as a critical point in North American – even world – political history. Those of us unable to turn our eyes from the rapid, and astonishing, unfolding of events can only shake our heads in disbelief as an increasingly erratic and unpredictable Chief Executive and his unconscionable enablers dismantle half a century of social and environmental progress and cripple the institutions designed to specifically encourage it. Meanwhile, he has opened up the doors of his country’s national treasury to the wealthiest, most unscrupulous members of the financial elite, unleashed violent and unreasoned resentment, and brought the social order to the brink of collapse. Meanwhile, he has undermined any sense of the security an alliance with America once brought in a world where his most obvious and determined enemies are led by ruthless autocrats he so obviously admires.

The list of ‘unthinkables’ the Donald has unleashed in his sixteen months in office is virtually endless and he has made it clear that if unhindered, it will only continue to grow exponentially. He is a man on a mission and although we might not be exactly clear what he wants to accomplish, we do know that he will stop at nothing to do it. When the present is unbelievable, worst case scenarios cannot be dismissed off hand.

The word ‘fascist’ has been thrown around in North American politics for almost 100 years, but since the Second World War no major American political movement could legitimately be described as such. Even the benighted Richard Nixon, at whom the epithet was frequently tossed, could not be fairly so described, despite his obvious malicious failings. This president, and the armed, drooling horde that worships him, are a different kettle of fish. These represent a worldview in which only certain lives matter and that is governed by a reactionary, xenophobic, and mythically nostalgic racial intolerance and a firm belief in social homogeneity and conformity.

It is not too late for the United States to turn this shift around as the midterm elections in November could provide the determined legislative brakes necessarily to do so. The ghastly Republican majorities in both houses of congress, whose only saving grace is their general incompetence, are in jeopardy and a relatively coherent Democratic majority could seize both chambers. They, along with the not-yet-thoroughlycorrupted courts, still have the power, if not the will, to foil Trump’s most outrageous ambitions; after four more years of the status quo, however, it will be way too late, if it isn’t already.

Here in Canada, we have looked down upon the incredible upheaval going on next door with a concerned, but bemused fascination. We congratulate ourselves at avoiding the most destructive aspects of America’s ideological divide and have maintained – in general – a largely peaceful atmosphere of political debate. There are, however, worrisome signs on the horizon.

Since his election Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has squandered a large amount of the political capital that came with his handsome, anti-trump public image and his ability to spend time with the Trumpster without enraging him. Since then, he has spent much of his public time uttering well deserved public apologies on behalf of all Canadians for offenses most of us don’t quite understand and dressing up in colourful international attire. Meanwhile, he is facing a complex situation involving provincial governments over pipelines, First Nations, and environmentalists in which he must make decisions that will enrage at least half of his constituents. Involved primarily in the dispute are too relatively progressive, but unpopuylar, provincial governments who could be his natural allies were they not so violently opposed to each other. In an environment where a struggling Alberta is trying to market its most valuable resource and is being thwarted on all sides by its Canadian partners, it is easy to sell the notion that a Trudeau is screwing the west over oil once again. There is no way he can satisfy both sides

Meanwhile, both Quebec and Ontario face general elections this year and the prospects for progressivism don’t look promising at all. IN Quebec, the embattled Couillard Liberals are trailing a newly invigorated Coalition Avenir Québec which is both economically and socially more conservative than the ruling government. Economically, the Liberals are fairly well-placed, having achieved reasonably balanced budgets through painful cutbacks and realignments of services. They are now in the position to throw around some muchneeded money to improve social services and infrastructure and the gifts are flowing fast and wide, This doesn’t appear to have assuaged those who have felt the sting of austerity, however, whether as social clients or government service professionals. The anger and impatience are palpable and to be frank, Couillard does not impress with his charm.

Meanwhile, the traditionally influential Parti Québécois seems to have run out of steam. It has been outflanked on the left by the upstart Québec solidaire, and on the soft nationalist front by the identity politics oriented CAQ. Although a CAQ government will not present any revolutionary shift in outlook, it most certainly will steer Quebec society steadily to the right, with all that implies.

Meanwhile, in Ontario the despised Liberal government of Katherine Wynne is being clobbered in the polls by a Progressive Conservative party ironically led by the incomparable Doug Ford. Doug, of course, is the enthusiastic older brother to the late inimitable Rob Ford who captured the world’s attention with his cocaine-riddled antics as Mayor of Toronto. Doug essentially the block from which the old chip fell – the Don Cherry of provincial politics, if you will - and is spewing the same kind of angry resentment so eloquently expressed by the Trumpian army of malcontents to the south. He is extremely socially conservative, and has promoted homophobic and misogynistic policies and demonstrated some of the social intolerance of much of the far-right. Overall, he projects the same macho, hard-line ‘good ol’ boy’ attitude that seems so prevalent among some. His ridiculousness is obvious, but the level of discontent with the current government is staggering and Wynne’s best hope for survival is overwhelming popular revulsion to Ford himself – and that has yet to materialize.

Moreover, next year Young Justin will have to present his record to the electorate one more time without the temperamental support of two of his best provincial allies. He will be faced by the Conservatives of Andrew Scheer, who doesn’t represent much of a shift from the unpleasantness of Stephen Harper, although he expresses it in a much less menacing manner. His other opponent, the NDPS Jagmeet Sing has failed to capture anywhere near the enthusiasm needed to regain the influence the Party exuded during the years it was led by the lamented Jack Layton. This failure – and his greatest challenge, unfortunately – is best illustrated by the resistance with which his visible religious affiliation has been met in the aggressively secular society of Quebec. His ethnicity, while popular among progressives, has also not endeared him to the vast majority of uncommitted voters the party needs to thrive.

All in all, while the year might see significant shifts in American society, we in Canada can clearly expect some internal transformations that will change the game as well. Let’s hope we’ve learned enough from watching our neighbours to avoid the worst