Correct inferences furnish good results

“It is not really difficult to construct a series of inferences, each dependent upon its predecessor and each simple in itself.”

That was easy for Sherlock Holmes to say, but harder for us nonfiction mortals. However, to play bridge well, you need to draw accurate inferences from everyone else’s bidding and play.

Today’s deal is a one-pipe problem for Holmes, but at least a three-piper for Dr. Watson.

South is in four spades. West leads his singleton diamond. South takes East’s 10 with his ace, cashes the spade ace and plays another spade to West’s king. West shifts to the club two. What should happen after that?

South’s jump to four spades was a tad exuberant.

South knew that if someone who opens with a pre-empt leads a different suit, that card is a singleton. So, declarer was not tempted to try to take three diamond tricks to shed his heart loser.

When West led a club at trick four, East won with his king, then cashed the ace. But he was not sure what to do next. Should he play a third club, assuming partner started with queen-third or fourth; or should he return a diamond, assuming West could ruff it; or should he lead a heart, hoping that partner had the ace?

Taking them in order, under the club ace, West should play the jack to deny the queen. If West started with three trumps, why would he have played the king on the second round? So the correct inference is to lead a heart, which, of course, works perfectly. Yes, West might have cashed the heart ace before shifting to clubs, but that was not clearcut.