Federal elections: the science behind voting

With the upcoming federal elections already taking space in the public sphere, The Record spoke with Dr. Jerald Sabin, associate professor at Bishop’s University, who specializes in Canadian politics and identity politics to learn more about what issues will be at play on October 21 for Canadians.

Originally from Southwestern Ontario, Sabin obtained his undergraduate and Masters’ degrees at Carleton University.

“Being in Ottawa is really the best way to go learn about politics,” he said, explaining that he completed his phd at the University of Toronto in Canadian Politics.

According to the professor, there has been a significant shift in the way that Canadians vote over time.

“Historically, it was very rare for a majority government to not win a second term. Political dynamics are shifting rapidly today. Most recently, we observed Philippe Couillard’s Liberal government be outed after a single term in Quebec,” he mentioned.

“There are a few other things at play

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in this election. One is the re-emergence of Quebec nationalism with the election of the CAQ. We had not seen such levels of interest in the last two decades,” he conceded. “Another is the increased economic alienation around oil and gas productions and pipelines out West.”

Although the two main federalist parties, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), have had a stronghold in Canada since the Confederation, partisan voting has lost ground. “Traditionally in central Canada, Catholics would vote for the LPC, while protestants would vote for the CPC. More recently, there has been a breakdown of those dynamics across demographics,” noted Sabin.

“French Quebecers are the perfect example. In the last few elections, they voted for the Bloc Québécois, then the New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP), and then the Liberals in 2015. What happens this time around is fair game,” he claimed.

According to Sabin, 30 per cent of Canadians reliably vote for the CPC in every election. Oppositely, 60 per cent of Canadians are more on the progressive side of the political spectrum. “Partisan allegiance moves around quite a bit on this side of the spectrum, with votes switching from the NDP to the Greens, the Liberals, and the Bloc in Quebec. There is large pool of national voters for three parties to compete for,” he explained.

“With our system, the candidate with the most votes wins and does not need a majority. If there are enough viable candidates, you can win a riding with as little as 35 per cent of the votes,” observed Sabin. “Split votes are concerns for the left and the right, but in this election, Scheer will be most vulnerable to vote splitting. The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) is even further to the right than the CPC. If a PCC candidate obtains 5 per cent of the votes, that can sway a riding away from the Conservatives’ hold.”

Over the years, newer parties have been able to stand their ground on the federal plane. “When the NDP swept the nation in 2011, Jack Layton was an incredibly strong party leader and he propelled the NDP to prominence with his charisma, and his strong abilities in French,” added Sabin. “Quebecers also broke for the NDP because they grew tired of the Bloc and Gilles Duceppe and refused to vote for traditional federalist parties.”

“Elizabeth May is seeing a strong growth in support, something we have not seen since 2008, thanks to the reemergence of climate change issues and the historic weakness of the NDP,” he claimed. “Many voters have bled over to the Greens, either because of the Liberals’ approach to indigenous-settler relations and the pipelines.”

“Social media has redirected a lot of party resources. You have the hybrid campaigns where you still see political parties and candidates engage in traditional techniques, like door-knocking, all-candidate forums, radio and television ads, national debates, and leaders’ tours,” described Sabin. “But there is now a whole new way to reach voters and to target demographics that would be attracted to their policies or their party.”

“That’s also why newspapers and traditional media struggle broadly in advertising. They reach anyone and everyone. With Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram advertising, campaigns can target groups of voters and they’re not wasting money or resources on people who won’t relate to their platform,” explained Sabin.

Social media has also democratized the conversations surrounding politics and the elections. “More voices than ever before are able to participate in the conversation and keep themselves informed, but it also adds more vulnerabilities to the system,” he conceded.

“There’s been an emergence of ‘Russian bots’ and organizations seeking to influence people’s votes with inaccurate information,” remarked Sabin. “The Conservatives have had to take back several statements that were inaccurate and originated online. For example, they posted that Justin Trudeau was being investigated by the RCMP. It was untrue.”

This last week, photos have emerged of Premier Justin Trudeau in 2001 dressed up as Aladdin and donning ‘blackface’ makeup at a theme party. How would such a scandal fare in this election, with nearly a month before Canadians head to the polls?

“It’s important to note that ‘brownface’ and ‘blackface’ are racist practices and behaviours. Trudeau has acknowledged that and apologized, but it’s going to be a problem for the Liberals,” remarked Sabin. “They have so closely associated their brand with messages of anti-racism and progressivism and it’s very hard to do with a leader that has been documented with ‘brown face’ and ‘black face’ on three occasions. It’ll be difficult for them to hold their moral high ground.”

Finally, Sabin recognized the voting system in Canada for its accessibility. “Elections Canada is a great thing. It’s an accessible and open process to be able to vote unlike other countries. You can register the day of the election at the polling station with government ID that shows a photo and your address,” he noted. “You can vote on the day of the election at the local polling station, or at a series of advanced polls, or at the returning office at any time during the late stages of the election campaigns. There are lots of opportunities for people to work their vote into their schedule. There is really no excuse not to vote. After all, it’s our future that’s at stake.”