The more likely is more likely to work

The American Heart Association Cookbook recommends: “Eat before shopping. If you go to the store hungry, you are likely to make unnecessary purchases.”

Bridge players should count winners and losers — not calories — before they start the play. In this deal, for example, how should South cook up 12 tricks with hearts as trumps? West leads the diamond jack. South wins and cashes the heart ace, both opponents following.

North’s three-club response showed at least a decent five-card suit and 8 or more points. Your five no-trump confirmed that your side held all of the aces and invited a grand slam. But when North could show only one king, you settled for the small slam. (If you show specific kings after five no-trump, North bids six clubs, South settles for six hearts, and North passes with no more kings.)

South has 11 top tricks: one spade, six hearts, two diamonds and two clubs. There are two logical ways to try for an extra winner: take the spade finesse or establish a third trick in dummy’s club suit. The finesse is only a 50% shot, but playing on clubs wins whenever the suit is splitting 3-3 or 4-2, which is a combined 84% — assuming that declarer times the cooking correctly.

At trick three, South should duck a club — play a low club from both hands. Suppose East wins that trick and shifts to the spade jack. Declarer wins with his ace, cashes the heart king, plays a club to dummy’s king, ruffs a club, leads a heart to the board’s 10 and discards his two remaining spades on the club ace and eight. Tasty!