Which opponent do you believe?

Lisa Alther, in “Kinflicks,” wrote, “I happen to feel that the degree of a person’s intelligence is directly reflected by the number of conflicting attitudes she can bring to bear on the same topic.”

The declarer had conflicting evidence in this deal from a Bridge Base Online duplicate. It was played at 16 tables. At most of them, West overcalled two hearts, having only a six-card suit and being vulnerable. North responded three clubs, South rebid three diamonds and North jumped to seven clubs. Real bridge robots do not need Blackwood!

At each of those tables, South took the first trick with the heart ace, ruffed a heart on the board (whew!), drew trumps and claimed.

At one table, though, West jumped to three hearts. He hoped that if he was doubled and lost at least 800 points, his opponents could make a slam. In addition, bidding higher might have made it impossible for his opponents to reach the right contract.

Over seven clubs, West contemplated sacrificing in seven hearts. He knew he could afford to go down seven: minus 2,000 versus minus 2,140. But he finally decided to pass because he was afraid he would push his opponents into seven no-trump. (Note that seven hearts doubled costs 2,300 if North cashes two top clubs, then shifts to his trump, South covering East’s card as cheaply as possible. Also, of course, seven notrump is hopeless!)

West’s bid strongly suggested that he had seven hearts. So, South won with the heart ace and ruffed a heart with the club jack -- down one! However, would East have raised with a singleton?