Now is not the time to call a federal election

Justin Trudeau has shaved off his beard and trimmed his hair. Prewrit electioneering (at taxpayers’ expense) is occurring across the country. Funding announcements were made from Digby to Troisrivieres, and Waterloo to Calgary to Burnaby. At present, the Liberals are ahead 12-15 points in the national polls. After six months, a new Inuk Governor General – Mary Simon – has been selected. An election thus seems imminent. But is this not risky and premature?

Business leaders are opposed inasmuch as the Liberal government lacks a concrete plan to reopen the Us-canada border and stimulate the economy. As Perrin Beatty of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce stated, “When we get into an election, governments tend to shut down. They don’t want to make decisions that are profound.”

In addition, there are major risks that there will be sudden flare-ups of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consider one example:

On June 1, Yukon had no active cases and a sick leave plan that paid $378 daily up to 10 days. In Whitehorse, 72 per cent had received the second doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Yet only 10 days later, an outbreak occurred in unvaccinated persons. By July 6, there were 360 new cases (147 still active) – the highest per capita case rate in Canada.

This demonstrates clearly that we can never fully let down our guard.

Due to the Peltzman Effect, vaccines heralded as a panacea to the pandemic weaken adherence to other safety measures such as social distancing and wearing masks – even for the unvaccinated. This is substantiated by the record number of Americans vacationing over the July 4th weekend. Over 47 million persons travelled by car or airplane – about 40 per cent higher than last year.

In Canada, Justin Trudeau prides himself on the fact that 42 per cent of persons have received both doses (38 per cent in Quebec) –much like the worst areas of the United States. For example, the vaccination rate in Ontario is similar to that of Kentucky, Quebec to Tennessee, and British Columbia to Georgia - hardly numbers to be proud of.

Doubling every two weeks, the delta variant now accounts for half of cases in the US and over 80 per cent in Ontario; it is six times as contagious as the original strain of the virus. In Ottawa County, Oklahoma, the vaccination rate is only 23 per cent, and cases have surged by 828 per cent! COVID-19 cases are now increasing in 27 states.

In most of Canada, the COVID-19 pandemic does seem to be on the wane. All of Quebec has gone to the green level. Ontario has cancelled border controls with Quebec and Manitoba and will begin Step three on July 16. Alberta lifted all restrictions on July 1 and is holding the Calgary Stampede. Saskatchewan dropped all of its public COVID-19 restrictions on July 11. British Columbia has cancelled most restrictions, except that persons are urged to wear masks in public areas. After 14 months, Newfoundland and Labrador will welcome fully vaccinated visitors from all of Canada. PEI will do the same on July 18. Nova Scotia and Manitoba are beginning to slowly reopen.

Nearly 80 per cent of Canadians age 12 and over have received at least one vaccine dose. However, except in the territories, only 45 per cent of all eligible Canadians have been fully vaccinated. Nearly five million children under age 12 will not qualify for vaccines until fall.

In the US, 99 per cent of deaths have been in unvaccinated persons. In 17 states in the rural South and Midwest, with vaccination rates as low as 30 per cent, COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen. Yet an Ipsos poll that found nearly 20 per cent of Canadians were hesitant or refused to get the vaccine.

Compared to several other countries, this is actually somewhat low, for 30 per cent of Australians are hesitant to be vaccinated, and 40 per cent of US Republicans refuse to be vaccinated.

If recurrent waves of this and any future pandemics are to be avoided, the premiers thus cannot rely entirely on vaccines; they must use all the potential tools in their toolboxes. This requires increased rapid testing and contact tracing, adequate paid sick benefits, increased numbers of isolation centres, and greatly enhanced temporary funding for these from Ottawa.

For months, premiers relied on the federal Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, but it pays only $450 per week after taxes, persons must apply every week,

and remittance may take several weeks. As the CRSB was not improved in the federal budget, Ontario provided three paid sick days at $200 per day. Yukon, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Manitoba soon initiated a variety of similar, short-term supplemental sick benefits programs. However, in all of them, sick employees when needing 10-14 days off would also have to apply for the federal CRSB, with all its defects. Across Canada, things there is either no paid leave, or a patchwork of inadequate, overly-complicated plans. There is no seamless, easy way to obtain sick benefits without incurring an interruption or loss of income.

I have called, in previous articles, for ten days of paid sick leave. Isolating workers would continue to be paid through their employer, who would be reimbursed by the province, which would be ultimately paid by Ottawa.

One last issue, which largely pertains to Quebec and New Brunswick:

Since 1995, every Governor General has spoken French, the first language of 23 per cent of Canadians.

Part of her new role is being commander-in-chief of the Canadian Forces (and colonel–in-chief of Van Doos in Quebec. It will be very difficult for Mary Simon to learn a new language, but she is very intelligent and seems motivated to do so. However, it would be most unfair to her for Justin Trudeau to dissolve government now, before she even has a chance to undertake sufficient French immersion studies, when the remaining ministers will have reduced power, the other MPS will have no legal status, and major decisions may have to be made.

There will be no way for Quebecers and other Canadians to properly hold the caretaker Liberal politicians accountable.

Hence, considering all these unresolved issues, now is definitely not the time for Justin Trudeau to call an election.

Ottawa physician Dr. Charles S. Shaver was born in Montreal. He is Past-chair of the Section on General Internal Medicine of the Ontario Medical Association.

The views here are his own.