Province hoping slowdown measures help avoid significant COVID-19 scenarios

With Saskatchewan’s COVID-19 totals moving in the wrong direction, health officials rolled out a series of new forecast models to showcase the dire situation which could occur without significant behavioural changes.

During a provincial press conference on November 20 the province presented four updated modelling scenarios which share a range of optimistic to pessimistic possibilities, with the numbers driven by actions of the entire population.

“Ultimately what we do today starts changing the models, because the imputation is dependent upon all of our actions,” Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer, Dr. Saqib Shahab said while presenting the modelling data.

Saskatchewan has experienced a steep jump in positive COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks (Nov. 9 to 23) with a total of 2,824 new cases across the province, with hospitalization numbers jumping from 37 to 106 in a two week window. There have also been nine additional COVID related deaths. The Southwest has experienced 94 positive COVID-19 cases during this time period, but 58 cases occurred from Nov. 20 to 23.

Dr. Shahab said there is a strain starting on the healthcare system, but without precautionary measures that total could rise significantly.

“We’ve had a lower rate of hospitalization until about four to six weeks ago. But over the last two to three weeks our hospitalization numbers are going up, as unfortunately are our ICU admissions and deaths. As you know there is a lots of concern obviously in the health system in terms of being able to ramp up and sustain this,” Dr. Shahab said.

Over the past few days Saskatchewan’s active per capita cases have become third highest in Canada.

At press deadline on Monday, the province reported that the seven-day average of daily cases grew to 219 (18.0 new cases per 100,000 population). Dr. Shahab is hoping the current precautionary measures in place help level that rate down to under 200 a day, as if no measures were taken with a week or two new case totals would be as high as 600 to 1000 cases a day.

“The modelling just confirms that we really need to take significant action so we don’t get to where forecast is showing.”

The modelling scenarios, which have been updated on a monthly basis for all of 2020, stress the importance of following the public health orders.

The difference between 30 per cent of the population using masks and 60 per cent of the population using masks has a significant impact on COVID-19 numbers. Additionally, cutting back on grocery trips to once a week from twice a week also has an impact on the spread of COVID.

“You can, through fairly simple measures, bend the curve.”

Dr. Shahab noted that precautionary measures taken by the entire population are important to prevent a further rise in numbers. Saskatchewan’s one week total of 1,116 (Nov. 9 to 15) was equal to two months of cases during the summer months.

“The higher we go the longer it takes to bend the curve and the more interventions we need to put in place.”

“It does show that we are going up higher than our comfort level,” Dr. Shahab said. “If doesn’t bend down in a week or two with the measures we’ve taken this week, we will have to think of other measures.”

Dr. Shahab’s presentation also delved into where positive COVID cases were occurring, with all category areas reporting new cases. There were eight cases related to exposure in the workplace, six through social exposure, seven in public facilities and schools/ daycares. But in the bulk of the transmission, 1,062 of 1,116 cases, they cannot determine the transmission chain.

“We all need to reduce our number of contacts. We all need to examine where we are going. Is it essential? Stay home as much as possible. Go in a very dedicated way if you’re going shopping. Try to go once a week. Grocery shop with just one person. If you’re doing Christmas shopping, try to go when there’s less crowding. Plan ahead what you want to get, go and get what you need. Don’t browse for a long period of time. All the behaviours we were exhibiting in March/april, we need to revisit,” he said.