COVID employment impact varies
APEC report suggests urban areas rebounded more quickly in Atlantic Canada
Some number crunching by an Atlantic Canadian think-tank shows the impact of COVID-19 on employment levels in the region has varied depending on where people live.
The new Atlantic Provinces Economic Council report takes a deep dive into Statistics Canada employment data for the first 10 months of 2020. Comparing this period from January to the end of October to the same period in 2019 shows that, overall, Atlantic Canada employment is down by 4.6 per cent.
Some areas are doing better than the rest of the region on that front. Moncton, N.B., actually experienced slight growth year over year when comparing those months, moving upward a miniscule 0.2 per cent. Based on the first nine months of 2020, Charlottetown's employment levels declined by only 1.0 per cent.
APEC major projects director Patrick Brannon cited an earlier reopening of the economy in those cities as a factor that helped their employment performance.
Most other urban municipalities in the region hovered close to the Atlantic Canadian average, and Brannon said those cities were helped by publicsector employment. Saint John, N.B., saw employment drop by 9.4 per cent. Brannon said that decline can be broadly attributed to a struggling services sector, including accommodations and food and beverage establishments.
URBAN VS. RURAL
The numbers really diverge when comparing urban and rural areas in all four Atlantic provinces. In all cases, rural communities are showing sharper employment declines compared to cities and larger municipalities.
The widest gap when comparing the first nine months of 2020 to 2019 was in Nova Scotia, which saw an 8.2 per cent decline in rural employment, compared to a 3.9 per cent decline in urban employment.
Newfoundland and Labrador witnessed the sharpest decline in rural employment at 9.5 per cent, compared to 6.1 per cent for urban.
Reduced employment in the manufacturing sector, major capital projects and fisheries has hurt rural areas, according to Brannon.
Aging populations throughout Atlantic Canada have increased the need for immigrants, but COVID-19 is slowing recent progress provinces have made on that front.
Almost 17,900 immigrants came to Atlantic Canada last year, more than doubling the 8,300 figure for the region in 2015. Through the first nine months of 2020, only 8,938 immigrants entered Atlantic Canada, according to data collected from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
“In rural areas, it's a big issue because there's a natural decline,” Brannon said, noting deaths in those areas have generally outpaced births, and outmigration to larger urban centres consistently depletes rural populations.
Brannon added that the federal government's commitment to increase its immigration targets over the next three years will help compensate for this year's slowdown.
“Basically, it's not going to improve until borders reopen and some of those travel restrictions start to disappear.”