War in Ethiopia may turn into guerrilla insurgency
ADDIS ABABA/NAIROBI — Ethiopia’s nearly month-long war against rebellious northern forces may be transforming into a guerrilla conflict, experts said on Tuesday, even though federal troops declared victory after capturing the Tigrayan regional capital at the weekend.
Fighting since Nov. 4 is believed to have killed thousands of people, as well as forcing refugees into Sudan, dragging in Eritrea, and worsening hunger and suffering among Tigray’s more than 5 million people.
Reports of clashes between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s soldiers and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) were still coming out of the region, though communications remain largely cut and outside access blocked.
Abiy accuses the TPLF of treason, specifically for attacking an army base, while the Tigrayans say their exmilitary comrade and partner in government wants to dominate their ethnic group for personal power. Both sides scoff at the other’s accusations.
Federal forces took Tigray’s highland capital Mekelle in hours on Saturday. TPLF leaders fled to the hills, saying they were resisting and taking prisoners.
Asked about ongoing fighting, TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael said in a text: “Yes. On three directions. Two around Mekelle. One 50km away.” There was no immediate response from the government.
Reuters has been unable to verify claims from both sides.
Two regionally-run Tigrayan TV stations, including the TPLF’S “Dimtsi Woyane” (“Voice of the Revolution”), were still on air, although it was unclear where they were broadcasting from. Government-affiliated media have not yet broadcast any images from Mekelle.
A United Nations aid worker in touch with people in Tigray said large areas remained outside federal control and fighting was still taking place on several fronts. There was still scant coordination with aid workers, the source added.
“There are skirmishes continuing in many parts of Tigray and we are seeing the hallmarks of the beginning of an insurgency,” Horn of Africa expert Rashid Abdi told an online forum.
“The terrain, geography and history suggest this will be a long, drawn-out insurgency.”
Both the federal army and the TPLF have long military experience — from toppling a Marxist dictator in 1991 to fighting neighbouring Eritrea from 1998-2000.
Though outnumbered and expelled from their capital, the Tigrayans can exploit their mountainous terrain and long borders with Sudan and Eritrea.
The U.N. refugee agency appealed for access to 96,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray, where food was thought to be running out.
“Our extreme worry is that we hear about attacks, the fighting near the camps, we hear about abductions and forced removals,” spokesman Babar Baloch told a news briefing in Geneva.