A Maritimer for PM? Are you kidding?
Is something peculiar going on in political circles upalong?
The central Canadian media have been a twitter over the notion that Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic Leblanc has his eye on his best buddy Justin Trudeau’s job. A while back some of them were gaga about Housing Minister Sean Fraser. One commentator even called him “the Conservatives’ worst nightmare” were he to become Liberal leader.
What's uncanny about this, as you may have grasped, is that both of them are Maritimers. Looking to Maritimers for deliverance is not usual practice in the Golden Triangle.
So what’s going on, if anything? First, let’s note the somewhat uplifting reason why these gentlemen have been drawing attention: an impressive, fact-based command of their domains and a rational delivery, free of the hyper stuff. In today’s screaming politics, this is startlingly different.
This is especially the case for Leblanc, MP for Beaséjour (outside Moncton, N.B.), whose many roles have given him possibly the best grasp of any one of the functions not only of the federal government, but of the all-important interactions with the provinces and of the larger politics. (Fraser, MP for Central Nova, is, after all, only 39, but being tall and handsome has more image potential.)
I was watching Leblanc at a press conference on the pressing question of auto theft in Ontario a few weeks ago. He quietly took the mic from a muddled lesser minister and explained, facts in hand, the big picture, the obstacles and the way ahead in an authoritative manner that seemed to leave the assembled media without any further questions.
What’s being reported is that there’s an organizing movement behind Leblanc to succeed the embattled Trudeau. Leblanc has denied that he’s after Trudeau’s job, saying he’s both proud and excited at the thought of fighting the next election under Trudeau’s leadership. You couldn't expect anything less. After all, Trudeau, son of Pierre, and Dominic, son of major Maritime cabinet minister Romeo Leblanc, grew up together from the time they were toddlers.
Reporters, however, noted that Leblanc didn’t deny that there were people organizing on his behalf. If you’re not an old politics junkie you might not know that this is the way it works when a leader is on the skids — awkward denials up front and frenzied organizing behind the scenes.
And Trudeau is indeed on the skids, with the recent budget a last-ditch effort to turn things around which is unlikely to do the trick. The inside word is that the Liberals hope to cut into the Conservatives’ large polling lead by five percentage points by this summer to have a chance.
With Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre having social media on fire despite announcing no policy, that seems unlikely. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trudeau realizes that the jig is up and that he's in on the scheme to arrange his own succession — with Dominic as the guy.
What’s intriguing here is that Dominic is indeed the guy, with Sean Fraser getting attention. I've always maintained that there’s a certain virtue in being not only small but also “backward and rural” as the Maritimes have often been characterized in the moneydriven scheme of things. It means, at least, that you’re a little less crazy than at the centre of the hullabaloo when things come unstuck.
Maybe these guys are channelling a certain feet-on-theground merit of their Maritime background, which is what the world actually needs.
Keep in mind too, that the level heads in the Tory party are more apt to be Maritimers and Atlantic Canadians as Poilievre goes half-trump. Might be something to think about there too as things unfold.
Or maybe, to put it in reverse, things are so desperate that the Liberal braintrust is scouring all kinds of unlikely places in the hope of some last-minute magic.
Either way, marginal as we are, occasionally we get a kick at the can. The last one was Robert Stanfield, former Nova Scotia premier — one of conservatism’s better people in Canadian history. Alas, image politics had become a thing and his rival, Pierre Trudeau, had all the charisma, although Stanfield came within two seats of defeating him in the 1972 election.
Before that, our main guy was Conservative Robert Borden, a Halifax lawyer who was prime minister from 1911 to 1920 – that is, through the First World War. Before that, when Nova Scotia was still a significant factor in Canadian affairs, Father of Confederation Charles Tupper was PM from May to July 1896 and John Thompson from 1892 to 1894. And Depression-era PM R.B. Bennett was born in New Brunswick but was elected out of Calgary.
So if Dominic (or anyone else) did indeed take over, it too would likely be a short-term affair. Turning the now-old Trudeau government around seems unlikely, but a new person might dampen the Poilièvre disturbance that we seem to be in for and steer the ship towards more promising waters.