Trump’s NAFTA bluster is par for the course, says trade expert

WASHINGTON (CP) — First, Donald Trump threatened to rip up NAFTA. Then he didn’t. This week he did again. Now, he’s saying he won’t. But maybe, he says, he’ll change his mind again and rip it up if he can’t get a good deal. What’s going on? “A negotiating ploy,” said Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute, a top U.S. expert on the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“True to Trump’s style. The only surprise was the quick reversal (this week).” It’s not only Trump’s style. It’s basic negotiation theory. It involves the concept of negotiating clout stemming from the power to walk away. It belongs to whatever party least fears the WATNA — the acronym for Worst Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement.

And right now, it seems, some people aren’t sweating the WATNA.

For starters, there’s the U.S. Congress. Trump needs Congress to move and it hasn’t. It’s not only slow-walking the appointment of a trade czar, but has yet to approve a notice that would allow negotiations to start in 90 days. And the clock is ticking. If there’s no deal by next April, the Mexicans warn it probably can’t happen next year because of their national election. Canada’s stance is wait-and-see.

Trade expert Laura Dawson explains the basic challenge for the U.S. president: He needs other parties to be worried. And their palms are not likely sweating over the idea that if NAFTA talks derail, the status quo continues and Trump’s big campaign promise to renegotiate crashes into oblivion.

“The alternative to a renegotiated NAFTA has been the status quo. And the status quo is not too bad (for them),” said Dawson, the head of the Canada Institute at Washington’s Wilson Center.