Shaky times ahead for new gov’t
The final results might not be clear for days, but Tuesday’s tight election results show the BC Liberals lost their connection with significant numbers of voters, and New Democrats found new strength.
The vote tallies see-sawed back and forth all night, with the Liberals finally taking a small lead at the end, but with the Green Party holding the balance of power.
It’s a startling turn of events and uncharted waters for B.C., which hasn’t seen a minority government since 1952.
Absentee ballots, which will not be counted for 10 days, could change the results in several ridings.
What happens now will depend upon the final seat counts. If there is no clear majority, will the Greens support the NDP informally, or enter a formal coalition? Will Liberal Leader Christy Clark try to govern? Will whoever becomes premier, try to force an early election?
The last option is perilous, because voters will almost certainly punish a party that sends them back to the ballot box so soon.
Regardless of what happens to the seat counts, however, the campaign magic that won Clark an unexpected victory in 2013 didn’t work this time. Her party dropped seats, including some cabinet ministers, while the NDP picked up several.
The Liberals promised voters continued balanced budgets, a freeze on personal income taxes and an eventual end to MSP premiums. Clark kept her message focused: jobs.
For almost every riding and to almost every question, the answer was jobs. Is affordability a problem? A job is the best way to be able to afford a decent place to live. Are 20 per cent of children living in poverty? The best way to haul kids out of poverty is to make sure their parents have jobs. Are the resourcedependent communities suffering? Their residents need jobs.
Even though the bonanza Clark promised during the 2013 election from liquefied natural gas looks like a pipe dream, she still clung to it during the 2017 campaign. She maintained the industry would thrive, even if the multibilliondollar payout to the people of B.C. doesn’t materialize.
That pitch seemed to play well early in the campaign, but the lustre faded, perhaps because British Columbians saw that jobs aren’t the answer to every question.
The NDP promised $717 million in new spending, with a surplus of $108 million in 2017-18 thanks to cost savings and new revenues. They offered $10-a-day child care, an increase in the corporate tax rate to 12 per cent and $400 a year in rebates to renters.
Horgan’s strategy turned away from that of former leader Adrian Dix in the 2013 campaign. Dix took the high road, and refused to “go negative” by attacking Clark and her record. This time, Horgan went after Clark for being more concerned about corporations than about people, more focused on economic growth than humanity.
Horgan struggled to project a presence to contrast with Clark’s persona during legislature sittings. Between sittings, he almost disappeared. Premiers always have an advantage in getting the public’s ear outside the house, and it takes a strong, savvy opposition leader to come close to matching that pulpit.
Despite those handicaps, however, Horgan and his party find themselves stronger.
The number-crunchers have yet to weigh in, but it could be that the Greens under Andrew Weaver snatched more votes from the Liberals than from the NDP. In any case, if their three-seat total holds, they will have done far better than expected. Weaver, the neophyte politician, was a quick learner.
He will find himself in a position that would test the skills of even the most experienced parliamentarian and political strategist.
Whether the next government has a minority or a slim majority, there will be turmoil.
And it is likely the next premier of the province will be chosen by one person: Andrew Weaver.