Senators will be in tough to repeat deep run

While the sting was still fresh from a defeat in double overtime, the Ottawa Senators were already hopefully looking to the future after Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final.

“We’ve got a lot to build on right now,” winger Bobby Ryan said after Thursday’s 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins. “I think we can be here a year from now.”

But unfortunately for the Senators, another deep playoff run doesn’t appear likely in the near future.

Almost everything had to fall exactly into place for the Sens to win two rounds and push the Pittsburgh Penguins to seven games, beginning with unlikely regular-season success. Ottawa was far from dominant. The Senators scored the fewest goals of the 16 playoff teams and were the only one to own a negative goal differential (minus-4). Opponents fired 211 more shots on goal than Ottawa did at 5-on-5 and special teams were also below-grade with the Sens tied for the seventh-worst power play and ninth-worst penalty kill.

They survived on those especially thin margins with mostly terrific goaltending from Craig Anderson and Mike Condon (eighth-best overall save percentage), an MVP season from Erik Karlsson, solid campaigns from Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Mark Stone, and a full embrace that Guy Boucher’s way was optimal toward success.

Much of that continued in the playoffs with the Sens continually prevailing in close games. They deserve some credit for landing that extra goal, but the good fortune in winning six of eight overtime games can’t be discounted. Nine of their 11 post-season wins were by a goal.

Nashville outscored opponents by 18 in getting to its first Cup final. Pittsburgh, the Predators’ soon-to-be opponent, had 14 more goals than the opposition. The Sens were outscored by three and outshot 622-574.

Ottawa beat two more talented teams in the Bruins and Rangers, but also a pair who have passed their Cup-winning windows.

The Senators also benefited from the NHL’s unusual playoff format, which saw the two best teams in the league — Washington and Pittsburgh — face off in the second round. Had the playoffs been a one through eight seeding system, Ottawa would have faced the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, a seemingly superior team to Boston and one that would have had home-ice advantage.

A repeat of all those circumstances next season and beyond seems unlikely, though hardly impossible as this year’s fortuitous run proved.

Detrimental to future runs and even Cup contention otherwise is a lack of elite-level talent after Karlsson.