Green voters now having 2nd thoughts, poll suggests
B.C.’s Green party would lose almost a quarter of the votes it won in May if another election were held, a new opinion poll suggests.
And more of the vote-changers would be aiming for a Liberal majority than an NDP majority, the Angus-Reid poll says.
“This hung parliament appears to have some voters feeling regretful,” reads a press release from Angus-Reid accompanying the poll results.
“Hindsight has left many British Columbians feeling like they could have been a difference maker,” the release says. “This feeling is most pronounced among Green party voters — nearly one-quarter (23 per cent) of whom say they would switch.”
Last month’s election saw the Liberals win 43 seats, one seat short of a majority, and the New Democrats and Greens have an agreement to defeat the Liberals in a confidence vote later this month.
Overall, only 11 per cent of British Columbians in the AngusReid poll said that they would vote differently if a snap election is held. But the loyalty of Liberal and NDP voters to their respective parties is much stronger than it is for those who voted for the Green party on May 9.
Provincially, the Greens received almost 17 per cent of the popular vote, winning three seats in the legislature.
If the change in voting intentions suggested by the Angus-Reid poll were to prove accurate in another election, the Green vote would fall four points, to 13 per cent.
Among those who say they’d vote differently, 35 per cent say the reason for doing so would be to try to ensure the Liberals won a majority. Twenty-two per cent say they’d switch to try to get a majority for the NDP.
However, 43 per cent of votechangers say they’d mark the ballot differently to support a candidate or party they believed in, as opposed to voting strategically to try to defeat a candidate.
So, the poll can’t be interpreted as predicting a Liberal majority in the event of another election, an Angus-Reid researcher says.
“It’s a significant number who say they would vote for someone they believe in, but we don’t know where those votes would go,” Dave Korzinski said.
“So one in three going Liberal may be counterbalanced by two in three who are also vote-switching, going NDP, or other,” Korzinski said.
On overall voting intentions, Korzinski notes, the new poll found 39 per cent support for the Liberals, 38 per cent for the NDP and 20 per cent for the Greens.
“Given that we just came from a 41-40-17 result in the May election, it’s just as likely that we would end up in the same spot as now as it is that the Liberals could garner a majority, depending on which way those votes go in contested districts,” Korzinski said.