Race plays dominant role in U.S.

Since the 17th century when black slaves were first brought to North America, race has played a dominant role in the political life of the United States.

A bloody civil war was fought on the issue and, in the aftermath, the formerly rebellious states were allowed to effectively disenfranchise the freed slaves. That gross injustice was partially remedied by the Supreme Court decision to end segregation together with the civil rights movement of the 50s and 60s. But, old prejudices die hard. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 produced a tectonic political shift: the South changed from Democrat to Republican. The Republican Party (which led the fight to abolish slavery in the 19th century) has effectively used race as a primary driving factor in all presidential elections in the last 50 years. Combined with the political philosophy advocated by Newt Gingrich in the 90s — that is, treating Democrats as enemies to be crushed with no compromise — has now resulted in a deeply polarized nation. The consequences on both the domestic and international fronts have been cataclysmic.

Two major domestic conflicts stand out. First, was the unprecedented decision of the Republican leader in the Senate to deny President Obama the constitutional right to have the Senate consider his nominee to the Supreme Court. That action ensured the continuation of a conservative majority on the court, but also served to make compromise on any issue in Congress virtually impossible since there is now no trust between the two parties.

The second conflict is the current impasse on immigration reform and the treatment of the “Dreamers”, i.e., children brought to the U.S. illegally, who now, having been educated in the USA, are being threatened with deportation. Republicans seem determined to greatly reduce immigration and to deport millions of illegal immigrants in an effort to delay indefinitely or, at a minimum, substantially postpone the date at which white Americans will become a minority.

The Census Bureau currently projects this will occur around 2040.

On the international side, a bipartisan foreign policy — central to U.S. actions during the post-war era ‚ is no longer possible. Beginning with the election of George W. Bush in 2000, each successive administration has, to some degree, attempted to revoke the policies of their predecessor.

Consider how this is viewed by other nations. What a given administration might promise today may be reversed after the next election. Uncertainty about the U.S.’s position on defence, economic co-ordination and trade relations is now the norm. U.S. world leadership — pax Americana — no longer obtains and America is regarded by friend and foe alike as being unable and unwilling to make long-term treaties or alliances. Even worse, authoritarian dictatorships such as Russia and China, in the vacuum created by the U.S.’s abandonment of leadership, find it easy to sow discord among democracies to advance their long-term objectives.

Canada’s long-term interests are suffering. Trump’s policies, particularly with respect to NAFTA and tariffs on steel and aluminum, are part of a de facto declaration of economic warfare. Foreign investment in Canada has been greatly reduced in the past eight months and as long as the future of NAFTA remains uncertain it is unlikely foreign firms looking to establish a presence in North America will consider Canada as a preferred site.

Two Harvard political scientists in their recent book, How Democracies Die, point out that President Trump and the Republican Congressional leadership are undermining the democratic foundations of the United States. Attacking government institutions (i.e.. the FBI), questioning the legitimacy of elections, pushing a racist agenda and negating traditional norms of behaviour in the legislature are all means they use to erode public support of democracy.

It would appear that the world is in for a period of great uncertainty and likely reduced prosperity as the U.S. sorts out how to deal with the reality that it won’t be great again.

David Bond is a retired bank economist who resides in Kelowna.