Most important changes to come
The BC government and its chief public health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, are starting to reopen the economy on a carefully-thought-out and gradual basis. Their caution is understandable. If they relax the restrictions on social distancing too rapidly the virus might stage a comeback that could, if infections rose sharply, lead them to re-impose the restrictions we have all dealt with for the last two months. That, in turn, would have a catastrophic impact on the overall vitality of the economy, pushing the province into a prolonged period of low growth and high unemployment.
So removing constraints will be done in stages and each successive phase will be triggered by events in the wake of the most recent relaxation of constraints. The photos of a crowded beach in Vancouver on May 9 must have given a few heart flutters to Dr. Henry wondering if relaxation was perhaps going too fast. Only time will tell. If the number of cases of infection does not rise dramatically, the steady but carefully phased-in return to higher activity by an increasing number of sectors of the economy will continue. And if the rate of infection remains low that will give the health care system time to catch their breath, reschedule delayed elective surgeries and review the protocols for operating hospitals in pandemic conditions.
The premier made it quite clear that certain types of activity would not be getting a green light to resume operations until a proven means of treating those infected by the virus or an effective vaccine is readily available. That means most professional sporting events, concerts and other crowd-generating events are off the table likely until the end of 2020 (an aggressive schedule) or until a year from now (merely an optimistic schedule).
Until such a time, how we go about our daily activities, as well as take vacations, will change. Will the wearing of a mask be mandatory when using public transit or travelling by air? Social distancing is already causing airlines to reduce the number of passengers per flight. Will the threat of infection and (very probably) higher ticket costs combine to make air travel unattractive for years to come and eliminate most profit in the airline industry? Jammed terminals at holidays and at the beginning of spring break may soon become distant memories.
And the oncoming summer will help the beleaguered hospitality industry, particularly restaurants with outdoor seating. But, with the return of colder weather in the fall, restaurants will again face major challenges. Social distancing requirements will sharply reduce the number of seats available and thus raise the barriers to reaching sustained profitability. Most assuredly we will see higher prices and a substantial reduction in the number of choices for dining out. Don’t throw out your sourdough starter yet and dry some of the herbs from your garden to be used all winter.
But perhaps the most important changes in our society will come from a major effort to reduce income inequality. If our federal minister of finance is possessed of a backbone, he will demand the government establish a royal commission to examine the national tax system from both a revenue side and from the expenditure side. Civic and provincial governments need greater fiscal resources, given their responsibilities for healthcare, education a host of other essential activities. Perhaps the premiers, when next meeting with the prime minister, can urge the creation of such a commission and offer to share some of the costs.
Hopefully one of the results of such a royal commission would be a goal and a strategy to eliminate poverty in Canada, particularly child poverty. That more than 10% of children in one of the world’s richest countries still live in poverty is a disgrace. As we are freed – as we will be – from threat of COVID-19, we must focus on an all-out effort to eradicate poverty in our society.