Glimpse Canada’s political future
Why, in the middle of the second wave of COVID-19, would anyone care about two Toronto by-elections? It’s a good question, but there are in fact a number of reasons to see next week’s votes in Toronto Centre and York Centre as significant political events in a very tumultuous year. They may not rattle the balance of power in Justin Trudeau’s minority government, but the Oct. 26 by-elections are laden with historic and political firsts across the political spectrum.
In fact, the results of these two votes are worth more than the attention — or turnout — that they’re likely to receive in the midst of a pandemic that’s wearing down the entire country.
Here are just some of the ways in which they do matter, and why they will be analyzed by party strategists in the coming months for signs of what’s to come.
Most obviously, this is the first electoral test for the brand new Green party Leader Annamie Paul, who is vying to win the seat held until very recently by former finance minister Bill Morneau.
Paul is the first Black woman and the first Jewish woman to lead a political party; in those ways alone, Toronto Centre gets to be part of history. But it is also one of Canada’s safest ridings for Trudeau’s Liberals, so Paul’s battle will be an uphill one for a new leader trying to make some kind of Green gains.
It might be a stretch to call these two by-elections a referendum on Trudeau, but they are the first by-elections he’s faced since he won re-election a year ago this week. A lot has happened since then, to put it mildly.
Trudeau will get to see, for example, whether the loss of Morneau amid the WE Charity controversy of the summer has cost him any support among the faithful.
Many Liberals were grumbling about how Trudeau and his team managed to create another ethical storm for themselves during the pandemic.
Will that unrest surface in Morneau’s old riding?
Conservatives certainly hope so. These by-elections are a first for new Leader Erin O’Toole, too, and a chance to show whether he can grow the Conservatives’ support in Liberal territory.
O’Toole, who represents Ontario’s Durham riding in the Commons, calls himself a GTA politician, and someone who can get non-Conservatives to see themselves under his big blue tent. That wasn’t how he won the Conservative leadership, it should be said.
A postvote analysis by the Toronto Star showed that his chief rival, former Progressive Conservative party leader Peter MacKay, was preferred by more partisans in downtown and suburban Toronto.