Which will go first: COVID-19 or Trudeau?

No time for an election, no time for each other.

That, in a nutshell, is what we have learned about the state of federal politics after a puzzling few days of brinksmanship on Parliament Hill.

Had all of the federal parties been isolated together for the past seven months, Canadians might be tempted to blame pandemic fatigue for the snappish mood that almost pushed the country into an unwanted election this week.

But Wednesday was also the first anniversary of last year’s federal election – less celebrated than grudgingly marked under the shadow of a never-ending pandemic.

One year ago, MPs were celebrating the seats they won on Oct. 21, 2019. A year later, they came within a few dozen votes of having to fight for those seats again, in a complicated dispute over committees, corruption and confidence.

COVID-19’s second wave has postponed the collapse of Justin Trudeau’s minority government while heightening the tension around its continued existence.

In fact, the biggest political question for the last two months of

2020 is this simple one: Which has more staying power, the coronavirus or Trudeau’s government?

Trudeau was spared a trip to Rideau Hall on Wednesday when the New Democrats and the Greens joylessly refused to help Conservatives topple his government.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh insisted his decision was made to spite the prime minister, not to help him. Over and over again, Singh said he was denying Trudeau the election he clearly wanted. Green Leader Annamie Paul told the Star that her three MPs wanted no part of the “foolish” manoeuvring on either side of the Commons.

The second wave of COVID-19 is basically an endurance test, and this is essentially the climate in which politics is now being conducted at the federal level.

Just as we learned how many Canadians were living paycheque to paycheque in the first wave, Canada’s minority Parliament is lurching from one breaking point to another as 2020 draws to a close.

So in a year when so many citizens are surviving on borrowed money, it’s perhaps fitting that the Trudeau government is surviving on borrowed time. It is also evident that every confidence vote in the coming months will take the country to the brink of an election.

At least one other confidence vote has to be held before the year is out, on budget estimates, government sources point out, so Canadians can expect a sequel or two to the survivor-type political drama of this week.

“No one wants an election” was the most uttered phrase on Parliament Hill on Wednesday, even as everyone accused each other of wanting that very thing. If that is true, Canada only escaped going to the polls in late November because no one wanted that badly enough this week.

An election this fall would have had real, tangible costs for strapped citizens awaiting the latest boost to pandemic relief for everything from rent subsidies to small-business loans. Shutting down Parliament would have put most of these measures on hold for six to eight weeks. Normally, political parties can ride out public anger about an unnecessary election, which tends to fade after a few days into the campaign. The stakes in 2020 are higher, and the anger might well have become an undercurrent right up to voting day, making results as unpredictable as the coronavirus.

On the face of it, Trudeau might well have the most to gain from an election before this year is out. Successive elections, at home and abroad, have shown that votes held during the pandemic tend to favour the government in charge and even offer the real prospect of gains.

A few days ago, Trudeau placed a congratulatory phone call to New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, the world leader with whom it’s said he enjoys the most cordial relations. Ardern managed to turn a pandemic election into a historic majority win for herself and her party – no mean feat in a country with a proportional voting system.

The readout of the Trudeau-Ardern call made no mention of whether they’d compared notes on turning minority governments into majorities during a pandemic.

But they apparently did speak in wide, democratic terms: “They discussed the importance of working across partisan lines to combat polarization and focus on building a more equitable, prosperous, and sustainable future for everyone,” the readout said. Trudeau has work to do at home on combating polarization, this week has revealed. The first wave of COVID-19 may have bridged some differences between the parties in the minority Parliament, but the second wave is hardening them.

Some day, the politicians and public health officials tell us, the pandemic will be over. So will this minority Parliament. No one should be taking any bets on which lasts longer.