The Black Sea remains volatile area
For centuries the Black Sea was a historically-contested borderlands region of three empires — the Ottomans, Russians, and Habsburgs. Their demise following the First World War led to the creation of newly independent nations, and the emergence of a Communist Russian state.
After yet another world war, in 1945 the region was divided by the Iron Curtain, as either part of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc (Bulgaria and Romania) or NATO ally Turkey.
With the collapse of the U.S.S.R., three new states emerged in its place — the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Georgia. Today the Black Sea is bounded by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. These transformations, which led to the emergence of yet newer international frontiers, have led to inter-ethnic violence. In this part of Eurasia, the heightened nationalism has not subsided despite the reintegration of the region into the global economy.
On the contrary, history and cultural heritage often become sites of a fierce competition contributing to the alienation of some minority groups and feelings of cultural anxiety among the majority populations in the countries around the Black Sea.
The Crimean Peninsula is claimed in one way or another by Russia, Ukraine and the Crimean Tatars, a Muslim people once under Ottoman protection. Russia seized the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 but western countries have not recognized the annexation.
Georgia has seen Abkhazia break away and become a de facto independent nation, under Moscow’s protection, especially since the 2008 RussianGeorgian war.
As an international and strategically important body of water, and an area of contestation between Russia and the western allies, the Black Sea also remains a flashpoint which could at any time erupt into a military confrontation.
In February, ships from NATO member states, including Canada, took part in joint military exercises in the Black Sea. They were carried out in that part of the body of water which borders Russia’s coastline.
Britain’s Defence Secretary Michael Fallon told the Daily Mail that “the UK is sending a clear message that we are committed to defending democracy across the world and support Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu indicated that Moscow was monitoring the drills. “At present, we are watching and monitoring everything that is happening there.” Russia, he said, was ready to take on any challenges.
Bulgaria plays a prominent role in NATO’s plans to bolster the bloc’s military presence in the region. This year, Novo Selo, a U.S. military base there, is expected to host more American and NATO troops.
Last September, American and Bulgarian aircraft launched joint patrols in the Black Sea. The patrolling mission greatly increases the risk of an accident, especially with Russian military systems stationed in the Crimea, and Russia’s naval fleet based at Sevastopol.
Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Alexander Grushko said on Feb. 7 that he sees no signs of NATO rolling back its eastward expansion plans. The alliance’s presence in the Black Sea “is another step towards building up confrontation with Russia,” he stressed.
On Feb. 16, at a meeting of NATO defence ministers, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the alliance is planning an additional increase in its military presence in the Black Sea region, including more war games and training.
Might all this really lead to a wider war? According to British General Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO’s second-ranking military officer from 2011 to 2014, it’s a distinct possibility.
In his recently published book War with Russia: An Urgent Warning from Senior Military Command, he paints a plausible narrative of how such a war would be launched.
Nearly 70 per cent of Russians currently view NATO as a threat, according to a recent survey from Gallup. It is the highest number recorded since 2008. On the other hand, Eastern European NATO members see the alliance as a source of protection against Russia.