We are little, but we’re loud
Points, not votes, key factor in federal Conservative leadership race balloting format
During the past week or so Conservatives party members across the Island, and across the country, received their ballots to elect their new national leader.
Conservatives can submit their completed ballot by mail, or, on May 27 they can vote at a designated polling station. On that day the Island polls are open from noon until 5 p.m. The polls across the country open and close at the same time, which means Conservatives in British Columbia are voting between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. All the votes, including the mail-in ballots, will be counted in Toronto that evening and the results announced when the counting is completed.
There are 14 names on the ballot, but only 13 candidates. TV star Kevin O’Leary was so well-organized that he didn’t quit until the day after the ballots had been mailed. And, up until he dropped out, he was considered the front-runner.
Of the baker’s dozen that remains, only three or four are thought to be contenders. But, and it’s a big but, because of the unique nature of the voting system, it is very difficult to predict the outcome.
The Conservatives are using a preferential ballot. Tory voters will be asked to rank the names from the list in order of their preference. The person they would prefer to be leader they mark as number one, their second choice they mark as number two, and so on up to a total of ten names.
They don’t have to mark 10, they can mark only one if they want. But, they only get to fill out the ballot once. The person to get over 50 per cent wins the leadership.
After the first count the top nine names stay on the ballot and the second choices of all those who are eliminated are allocated among those nine. This process of allocating the choices of the person coming last continues until someone gets over 50 per cent. It is likely the ballots will be counted three or four times before a winner in declared.
This system was used by the provincial Tories when they chose their last leader, the Liberals in Egmont also used it to chose their candidate in the last federal election and it was used in the provincial referendum on electoral reform.
So, a preferential ballot is not new to Islanders, but, what is different in the Conservative federal leadership contest is that each of the 338 ridings has the same weight. A few hundred Conservatives in Cardigan, as an example, will have the same influence on the outcome as thousands voting in a downtown Toronto riding.
The Conservatives accomplish this weighting by assigning each riding 100 points. Again to use Cardigan as an example, (and the writer doesn’t know how many actual voters there are) if Candidate A gets 8 per cent of the ballots cast, he would get 8 points, if Candidate B gets 15 per cent he gets 15 points. In Cardigan these candidates might only get 40 and 75 actual votes, where the same percentages in the Toronto riding they might need 400 and 750 votes.
With each of the 338 ridings assigned 100 points, the total number of points is 33,800. To win the leadership a candidate must get 16,901 points. Points, not votes. In a large urban riding it takes a lot of votes to get a few points. In small ridings, like the four Island ridings, the reverse is true. A candidate who polls well in the 32 seats of Atlantic Canada could get a lot of points for a relatively few votes.
If these were the ‘good old days’ when a vote could be bought for a pint, the whole of the region could be had for a few hundred cases of rum. To achieve the same effect in Toronto it would take tank-car loads of the good stuff.