A balance of power scenario
Greens have it now in British Columbia; could it happen here?
The governing Liberals may have ample reason to push out good news announcements during the latest polling period on P.E.I.
In the wake of last week’s B.C. election, Premier Wade MacLauchlan may well be looking over his shoulder not only at the Opposition PCs but also at the upstart Green Party.
In B.C., incumbent Liberal Premier Christy Clark held onto power but only with a minority. That may change after a May 24 recount but if the election night result of 43 Liberals, 41 NDP and three Greens holds up, the Green Party will hold the balance of power.
And that will set the stage for a very interesting period in B.C. politics, one that would likely see the Greens emerging as a power broker in a coalition government and its leader, Andrew Weaver, as a political kingmaker. He says his early priorities in that role would be banning big money from political parties and bringing in proportional representation.
The Greens in P.E.I. are also enjoying a surge in popularity. Party leader Peter Bevan-Baker upset a Liberal cabinet minister in 2015 to become the first sitting Green MLA in the province’s history, just as Weaver did in B.C. in 2013.
A February poll suggested the Island Greens had 26 per cent of decided voters, ahead of the PCs at 19 but still well behind the Liberals at 48. BevanBaker was chosen by most respondents as the best leader, five percentage points ahead of MacLauchlan and more than 20 up on interim Tory leader Jamie Fox.
So it wasn’t surprising last week when the accidental release of an internal email from the premier’s office directed cabinet ministers to find good news announcements they could release during the current polling period.
Admittedly, polls are simply a snapshot in time and it’s difficult to put much weight in them, particularly midway through the term. The good news from the Liberals will likely bring some support their way, and the Tories will get a bump in the polls when they elect a new leader this fall.
But the fact that Bevan-Baker has been in the thick of debates in the legislature and has been one of its strongest performers has been a huge advantage for the upstart Greens. BevanBaker has championed, as expected, environmental issues but he has not shied away from social and economic issues, dispelling fears that the Greens are a fringe or one-dimensional party.
If they’re able to organize at the district level and attract a field of credible candidates, positive intent now reflected in the polls could translate into Green votes in 2019.
Beyond that, if Bevan-Baker could hold his own seat and perhaps pick up one more, and if the PCs made a couple of gains it could put the Liberals in minority government territory with the Greens potentially holding the balance of power.
That’s a lot of ifs, but for the first time in the province’s 144-year-history – especially in the wake of the surprising B.C. election result – it doesn’t seem like a far-fetched possibility.
It’s been a long time coming but P.E.I. is finally showing signs of moving away from the two-party system and adding at a Third Party into the mix.
And that’s anything but good news to the governing Liberals or to the Opposition Tories.