New leader, new hopes
Tories did pretty good job of creating some of the tension of an old style delegated convention
Last week’s Conservative leadership convention in Toronto was unlike any party leadership convention ever held in this country. Since the 1920s, party leaders have been chosen at a meeting attended by delegates from each federal riding. As there were often multiple candidates it usually took more than one vote to determine the winner. Sometimes there were three or four ballots before the victor emerge.
With the advent of television, these hotly-contested national leadership conventions, regardless of the party, were the equivalent of the final game of the Stanley Cup, with almost the same television ratings. With the voting delegates all in the same convention hall voting on each and every ballot, the tension, the brokered deals between the camps, the betrayals, the let-down of the losers and the elation of the winners, all playing out in front of the press and television cameras, it was dynamic and exciting.
How could last week’s contest, where some 200,000 people voted in their homes using a preferential ballot, possibly match the excitement and drama of the old delegated conventions?
Well, it didn’t. With fewer than one per cent of the voters in the hall, and no chance to change their vote between ballots, it was a pale imitation of the previous contests. But the Tories tried their best, and truth be known they did a pretty good job of creating some of the tension
of an old style delegated convention.
The votes were tabulated by computer so the final result was quickly known to the small group in charge of that process, but, they kept that a secret. By taking time between announcing the results of each progressive ballot the Tories stage-managed some drama and created a sense of mounting excitement. It was a much closer contest than many had expected. The ballots had to be counted 10 times before Andrew Sheer squeaked past Maxime Bernier, who had gone into the balloting favoured to win.
Ballot after ballot, as contenders fell by the wayside, Mr. Bernier was always in the lead, with Mr. Sheer trailing in second. He was behind by seven per cent on the first ballot, but in every subsequent ballot the margin kept shrinking, bit by bit.
Until finally, on the last ballot, Mr. Sheer slipped past and won by less than one per cent. The final tally had Mr. Bernier at 49.05 per cent and Mr. Sheer with 50.95.
In the week since the convention there’s a growing consensus that this was the best result for the Conservative Party. Mr. Sheer’s relatively bland policies have proven easier for MPs and party members to rally around than some of the more radical ideas Mr. Bernier had advanced.
Mr. Sheer is not well known, but this will change. His ready smile and easy manner should cause some concern among the ruling Liberals. He will not be as easy to demonize as the stiff, unsmiling personality of Stephen Harper.
When Justin Trudeau won 184 seats in the 2015 election, the anybody-but-Harper theme played particularly well in Atlantic Canada where the Liberals took all 32 seats. Another sweep is highly unlikely in 2019, especially in traditional Tory strong holds, such as Fundy-Royal, and Saint John in New Brunswick, Cumberland-Colchester in Nova Scotia and the St. John’s seats in Newfoundland.
Here on the Island, Lawrence MacAulay and Wayne Easter are two veterans who may not run again. By the time the 2019 election comes around, Mr. MacAulay will be 73 years old and served as an MP for more than 30 years. Mr. Easter will be 70 and an MP for more than 25 years. If they decide to retire, their seats will be up for grabs, and it will take more than sunny ways to hold them.
In the 2019 election, the big question in Atlantic Canada will be how many seats can the Liberals lose?