Right idea: Get on with their lives

The bad news is that we haven’t yet figured out how to prevent all terror threats

A January 2017, Pew survey showed that Americans rate terrorism as their top government priority. While Canada’s experience with terrorism has been much more limited, the Minister of Public Safety still commissioned a 2016 Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada.

Gary LaFree, PhD, Director of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, reminds us that terrorism is rare. In recent years, the United States has experienced fewer than 25 terrorist attacks, while Canada has had two. Worldwide, traffic accidents claim the lives of 100 times more people than those killed by terrorists. Below are the major findings and trends from the 2015 Global Terrorism Database (GTD):

r The annual number of terrorist attacks and total deaths due to terrorism decreased by 12 per cent in 2015.This was largely due to fewer attacks and deaths in Iraq, Pakistan, and Nigeria. This represents the first decline in total terrorist attacks and deaths worldwide since 2009.

r In several countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, the Philippines, Syria, and Turkey, terrorist attacks, total deaths due to terrorist attacks, or both increased sharply in 2015.

r Although terrorist attacks took place in nearly 100 countries in 2015, they were heavily concentrated geographically. More than 50 per cent of all attacks took place in five countries (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and the Philippines), and 69 per cent of all deaths due to terrorist attacks took place in five countries (Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, and Yemen).

r While Islamic State (IS) was responsible for 10 per cent fewer terrorist attacks in Iraq, the number of attacks carried out by ISIL in Syria increased by 58 per cent. The geographic reach of IS and its affiliates expanded as several existing terrorist groups pledged allegiance. In addition to Boko Haram in West Africa, the most active of these IS branches were located in Afghanistan/Pakistan, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. More than 15 perpetrator groups self-identified as “provinces” of the Islamic State in 2015, compared to four in 2014.

r The number of attacks in which victims were kidnapped or taken hostage declined in 2015; however, the number of kidnapping victims and hostages increased. This was primarily due to an increase in a small number of attacks involving exceptionally large numbers of victims.

The GTD shows al-Qaida has been responsible for only 59 attacks over its entire lifespan and only five attacks since 2008. Over half of all terrorist attacks in the GTD since 1970 involved no fatalities. The GTD identifies only 17 attacks from around the world that claimed more than 300 lives each. Of the more than 156,000 terrorist attacks in the GTD, the 9/11 attack, which took the lives of nearly 3,000 people, is still the deadliest attack in modern history. Apart from 9/11, no attack on the U.S. in half a century has claimed the lives of more than 200 people. The closest was the 168 victims of the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. A growing number of terrorist attacks — especially in the United States and Western Europe — are being aborted. Remember that terrorist groups are not all alike, ranging from lone wolves, through loosely connected shadow groups (e.g. neo-Nazis and radical Islamists) to highly organized groups like Islamic State and al Shabaab. These disparate entities are typically in a state of flux. Change is constant; stability rare.

Of the more than 2,300 unique terrorist organizations identified in the GTD since 1970, nearly 70 per cent had a life span of less than a year. Attributing and confirming responsibility for a terrorist attack is often impossible. Data from the GTD shows that no terrorist group could be assigned responsibility in nearly 60 per cent of the thousands of attacks that occurred worldwide since 1970.

The good news is that we understand terrorist acts a lot better than we used to. The bad news is that we haven’t yet figured out how to prevent all of them.

I believe that the British have the right idea. Stay diligent. Discourage excessive media focus. Reassure the public. Acknowledge personal loss and encourage people to get on with their lives.