More conflicts loom after Islamic State defeat in Raqqa
The Middle East may have turned a page with the defeat of the Islamic State group in its self-declared capital of Raqqa, but the future is looking even more tangled, and potentially as violent.
The downfall of a common enemy could open up cracks in temporary alliances created to fight the extremists, and rivalries for influence are now likely to take centre stage.
Already, a multitude of players in the crowded theatres of Iraq and Syria are racing for the spoils of war. And while the group fights its last battles in what remains of its self-styled caliphate, world powers and smaller players alike are vying to create new facts on the ground.
With the pivotal capture of east Aleppo in late 2016, President Bashar Assad’s government effectively neutralized its most threatening armed opposition, allowing it to train its full attention on IS. The priority was oil-rich eastern Syria, close to the Iraqi border, and with the backing of Russia and Iraniansponsored Shiite militias, the Syrian army has made significant advances in the area.
Tehran wants to establish a land route from Iraq through Syria, all the way to Israel’s borders. Washington and Israel are wary of this expansion, and Israel has warned it will not tolerate a continued Iranian military presence in Syria. This terrain is about to get increasingly muddied.
With the fall of Raqqa, the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led militia known as the Syrian Democratic Forces will turn its attention to Deir el-Zour province, where the race is on for control of its vital oil deposits and the border with Iraq. The Kurdish fighters have battled IS in the northeastern part of Deir elZour, gaining control of at least four oil fields and one natural gas installation.
The rival forces are currently positioned at nearly the same distance from the largest oil field, al-Omar, which is still controlled by IS. Assad has meanwhile vowed to retake control of Raqqa at some point. For now, the city is to be administered by a local civil council supported by the U.S.-backed SDF.
Starting as a small self-defence unit in northern Syria, the main Kurdish-led militia has become Washington’s primary partner in Syria and is now a multi-ethnic force of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian troops that boasts thousands of fighters. This alliance was cemented by the common goal of fighting IS, which at one point charged into Kurdish-dominated areas.
The increasing U.S. presence in the area also provided the Kurdish militia with international cover to push for their project of a federal system that would give them more autonomy.
The U.S., which maintains bases in northern Syria as well as military advisers that support the SDF, insists that it is not in Syria for the long run. But Kurdish officials stress that the Americans must stay to protect the gains against IS.
With the fight against IS winding down, cracks in the Arab-Kurdish alliance are likely to emerge as issues of governance and reconstruction take centre stage. Looking across the border, Syria’s Kurds are nervous as they see Washington’s support for their Iraqi Kurdish counterparts waver amid a dispute with the Iraqi government in the wake of last month’s Kurdish independence vote.
While Turkey initially intervened in Syria to support rebels fighting to topple Assad, it is now mainly focused on curbing Kurdish expansion and securing its long border. Last year, its troops captured a pocket of territory inside Syria to prevent a contiguous Kurdish hold along the frontier, and earlier this month, it sent troops and tanks into Syria’s northwestern Idlib province.