High hopes

The latest Corporate Research Associates (CRA) survey this week probably sent chills down the spine of finance ministers and premiers across Atlantic Canada. After returning home from Ottawa earlier in the week with a lucrative tax-sharing deal on the sale of legalized marijuana, visions of windfall revenues were quickly brought back to reality.

The CRA survey suggests that approximately 20 per cent of Atlantic Canadians plan to purchase pot once marijuana becomes legal July 1. That is about the same percentage that uses pot today — illegally.

So, it appears there won’t be a stampede by the population to get stoned once marijuana is legalized. Most people who shun pot today will still avoid the soft drug next July 1. The obvious difference is the 20 per cent of the population who use pot — regularly or occasionally — will be able to buy it at government-approved or operated outlets. The revenue will benefit the public purse instead of drug dealers.

For the first time, a slim majority of Atlantic residents (53 per cent) support legalization of marijuana for personal use, but only 15 per cent of Prince Edward Islanders plan to use marijuana when it becomes legal. The numbers are only slightly higher elsewhere in the region with Nova Scotia at 19 per cent, New Brunswick at 20 per cent and Newfoundland and Labrador at 23 per cent.

The federal government was well off base with its initial offer of a 50-50 split of excise taxes with the provinces. Ottawa passed legislation to legalize pot and then unfairly dumped the costs of enforcement, distribution, education and treatment onto the provinces. This two-year deal gives provinces and territories a 75 per cent share of tax revenues, with a portion going to cities and towns to help them pay for enforcement costs. It’s much more fair and reasonable.

Ottawa suggests there is unlimited potential for pot to generate far more revenue but the feds shouldn’t get their hopes too high. Based on the CRA survey, Canadians might support marijuana legalization but a large majority doesn’t plan to smoke it. Governments like to preach that legalization is not about revenues but about protecting kids. Yes, the real benefits are control, product safety and getting rid of criminal elements. And to eliminate the illicit pot market, the ministers agreed to keep the per-gram price of legal marijuana at roughly $10 — or even lower — relatively cheap by most standards.

Another survey released this week also suggests that future tax revenue for pot is exaggerated. An Ontario study indicates that in the last 20 years, the proportion of students who reported drinking alcohol dropped to 43 per cent from 66 per cent, while smoking rates plummeted to seven per cent from 28 per cent, and marijuana use dropped to 19 per cent from 28 per cent.

Young people are better educated, more concerned with their health and more aware that alcohol and smoking — cigarettes or joints — are simply not healthy options. Canada’s expected pot boom could go bust.