Selling NAFTA store?
If Trudeau goes too far down road of placating Trump, it could have political fallout
If embattled U.S. President Donald Trump opts to terminate the NAFTA trade pact, all three NAFTA member countries will pay a substantial economic price. But there’s no disputing the fact that Canada benefits more from the NAFTA deal than the United States.
It is also true that Trump is holding most of the important trade cards — particularly given our heavy reliance on preferential access to the U.S. marketplace. Put simply, we need the Americans more than they need us, and they know it.
One of the key questions then becomes: how far is official Ottawa willing to go to ensure that the NAFTA remains firmly in place? Stated differently, is the Canadian government willing to settle for a one-sided agreement (or “Trump deal”) that mostly favours the United States?
I have to admit that I get nervous whenever I hear Prime Minister Justin Trudeau repeatedly emphasize that he won’t cave into unreasonable U.S. demands and that he will protect vital Canadian interests right to the bitter end. Who is he trying to convince here? And is he instead trying to lay the groundwork for what could translate into major NAFTA concessions on Canada’s part?
There is lots of chatter swirling around Ottawa that the Trudeau Liberals are preparing to offer some “creative thinking” on a number of NAFTA proposals (for the sixth round of trilateral trade negotiations) — namely, on rules of origin for automobiles, dispute resolution and an overall review process triggered after a set period of time. Let’s hope that Canadian trade negotiators do not offer up a significantly watereddown Chapter 19 trade disputesettlement mechanism, which would be disastrous for corporate Canada.
There are signs that Canada is desperately trying to make itself useful to the Trump administration or to put itself in the good graces of Trumpland. We should be very careful here.
Assisting the United States and facilitating a diplomatic effort to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis by co-hosting an international gathering in Vancouver is one thing. But the last thing that Ottawa wants to do is to create an impression internationally that the Canadian government is carrying the can for the Trump White House. Nor do Canadians want to be viewed by other people around the world as camp followers to the U.S. Accordingly, I can’t help but wonder if part of the reason why the Canadian government is spending more money on defence and has taken such a harder line recently on the deeply unpopular Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela is to please Washington. And our odd decision to abstain on a December UN General Assembly motion condemning the Trump administration’s intent to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem falls into this same category.
What’s next? Is Canada going to break off official relations with Cuba if Trump moves to isolate further the Raul Castro government in Havana?
Additionally, Prime Minister Trudeau’s limp remarks in response to President Trump’s disgraceful reference to “shithole countries” in Africa highlights the government’s fear of offending the Americans during the NAFTA renegotiation period. His stunning silence, moreover, on Trump’s hatefilled comments about Haitians — of which there are some 120,000 living in the Montreal area — is especially surprising and disappointing.
So if the strategy here is that siding with — or doing as much as possible to help (and not offend) — the U.S. is the secret to actually securing the White House’s agreement to merely “tweak” the NAFTA, we ought to think again. I just can’t see Trump doing us any favours under any circumstances. He only wants to win.
If the Trudeau government goes too far down the road of placating Washington or seeking to curry favour with President Trump, it could have significant domestic political fallout. Indeed, the federal Liberals could severely damage their electoral prospects for the 2019 general election by being seen by voters as too compliant/cosy with the Trumpistas. And as many Canadian prime ministers can attest, cosiness with a beleaguered U.S. president is never a political winner in this country.