OSCAR PREDICTIONS
What will win, what should win
Annual look at what will win and what should win on Sunday
Ahead of Sunday’s 90th Academy Awards, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony that — at least at the end — should be a nail biter.
BEST PICTURE The Nominees: “Call Me by Your Name,’’ ‘’Darkest Hour,” ‘’Dunkirk,” ‘’Get Out,” ‘’Lady Bird,” ‘’Phantom Thread,” ‘’The Post,” ‘’The Shape of Water,” ‘’Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
BAHR:
Will Win: No controversy, timely messages, a dash of fantasy and a love of movies, “The Shape of Water’’ seems to be the safe, if a little boring, front runner.
Should Win: Aside from “Dunkirk,’’ which I saw three times in theatres, “Lady Bird’’ is the movie I want to watch over and over again. It is such an effortlessly perfect slice of life film that will be around far after this awards season noise comes to an end. The best picture category gets a bad reputation for all the times the award has gone to something that fades from memory a few years down the line. That wouldn’t be an issue with “Lady Bird.’’
Should Have Been a Contender: “The Florida Project,’’ Sean Baker’s loving and heartbreakingly honest portrait of the hidden homeless around the happiest place on earth was one of the great cinematic triumphs of the year.
COYLE:
Will Win: There are five movies with a legitimate shot to win, which makes this year more difficult than usual to call. I’m going to say Jordan Peele’s cultural sensation “Get Out’’ wins because it has two crucial things going for it: the all-important SAG ensemble nomination and a good shot at a recently highly predictive screenplay award. That, and it did more to re-energize genre filmmaking than anything in a decade.
Should Win: I’d be thrilled if “Dunkirk,’’ ‘’Get Out,” ‘’Lady Bird” or ‘’Phantom Thread” took home the top prize, but ‘’Call Me By Your Name” stood apart for me. It’s a movie that feels like it has the windows open, and life just flows through it.
Should Have Been a Contender: “The Florida Project’’ is a neo-realistic masterpiece of the first order. It’s staggeringly good.
BEST ACTOR The Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name’’), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread’’), Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out’’), Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour’’), Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.’’)
BAHR:
Will Win: Gary Oldman has won most of the major awards so far and there’s no reason he wouldn’t continue the streak at the Oscars, much to the chagrin of the internet’s darling, Timothee Chalamet, who will definitely get another shot at this award down the line.
Should Win: There have been so many lame “Oscar-baity’’ biopics that it almost diminishes his achievement, but honestly, Gary Oldman’s full and complete transformation into Winston Churchill is something they should teach in acting (and makeup) classes forever.
Should Have Been a Contender: Never in a million years would this have been a real Oscars possibility, but Robert Pattinson is so, so good as the bleached blonde Queens crook Connie Nikas who is trying to get his mentally handicapped brother out of jail in Josh and Bennie Safdie’s exhilarating indie “Good Time.’’ COYLE:
Will Win: Oldman has this one in the bag.
Should Win: I wouldn’t begrudge Oldman, an actor’s actor for decades, his moment in the sun. But I’ll say Day-Lewis, who we all know is simply the best there is. Maybe a surprise Oscar would coax him into rethinking retirement.
Should Have Been a Contender: Adam Sandler was brilliant as the rumbled, divorced son of a famous sculptor in Noah Baumbach’s sibling drama “The Meyerowitz Stories.’’ But, yes, it’s tough to win an Academy Award the same year you star in “Sandy Wexler.’’
BEST ACTRESS The Nominees: Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water’’), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’’), Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya’’), Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird’’), Meryl Streep (“The Post’’)
BAHR:
Will Win: It’s funny how uninspired the acting categories can seem when the same people win every award. This is Frances McDormand’s year, plain and simple.
Should Win: This is an extremely tough category, not only because all of the performances are so good, but they’re good in different ways.
Still, out of this batch, it was Margot Robbie who stretched herself beyond anything I might have assumed her capable of as the proud, defiant and unapologetic Tonya Harding. That shot of Robbie smearing on her stage blush while she tries to smile through the rising tears? It’s a classic.
Should Have Been a Contender: There were quite a few great leading performances by women this year (Brooklynn Prince and Jennifer Lawrence among them), but Vicky Krieps is the one that sticks out as a real gem for her work in “Phantom Thread’’ as the smitten but never swoony Alma, whose flushed cheeks don’t make her seem weak, only more resolute.
COYLE:
Will Win: McDormand is a virtual lock.
Should Win: “Three Billboards’’ wouldn’t exist without McDormand, who towers over the film like only she can. And Streep gave one of her most subtle performances in “The Post.’’ But most deserving is Ronan, who’s perpetually playing a jumble of emotions, most of them contradictory, at once.
Should Have Been a Contender: Michelle Williams, the real standout in “All the Money in the World,’’ deserves a shoutout, as does Lawrence, who carries “mother!’’
But I don’t understand a world in which Prince isn’t nominated for “The Florida Project.’’ That she’s seven-years old doesn’t do anything to detract from one of the year’s most memorable performances. (And her fictional mom, Bria Vinaite, is equally good.)