Cuba: the more things change ...
Not all Cubans singing from same hymn book about future direction of country
As hundreds of thousands of lively Cubans gathered for the May 1 Workers’ Day celebrations in Havana’s Plaza de la Revolucion (Revolution Square), it looked like newlyminted Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel was on the platform waving a small Cuban flag slightly behind Raul Castro, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and the former president. It was a demonstrably telling image of where Cuba’s economic and political situation currently stands.
Each speaker, standing before the large memorial to Cuba’s independence hero Jose Marti, made sure to reference Raul before acknowledging the presence of President Diaz-Canel. Under the new leadership, there seems to be a general sense, depending upon who you talk to, of both optimism and pessimism amongst Cubans.
Having just returned from almost two weeks in Cuba, I spoke to a number of people about what they expected under the Diaz-Canel government. Of course, every Cuban has their own unique take on the changing political landscape, and not all of them are singing from the same hymn book.
There are those who have high expectations that DiazCanel — who was born after the revolution and is the first civilian leader since 1959 — will initiate meaningful reforms to Cuba’s polity and ailing economy. But others worry that the anticipated changes might entail a warmer embrace of market mechanisms, a greater loss of state control and a corresponding growth in societal inequity in Cuba.
The one thing that Cubans did agree on, though, was that U.S. President Donald Trump is sure to be no friend of Cuba. “Relations with the United States have been deteriorating … due to an administration that has offended Cuba, strengthened the blockade against Cuba, returned to the rhetoric of the Cold War and adopted measures that offends and harms millions of Cubans and North Americans,” Diaz-Canel himself said in March.
On the overall picture in Cuba, one person said that life under Diaz-Canel would be the “same old, same old.” That nothing was going to change drastically in Cuba for a very long time.
Asked if there would be much difference between Raul and Diaz-Canel, one Cuban paused and then said carefully, “maybe.” He went on to add: “Maybe some change on the economic side. But who knows for sure.”
There is rampant speculation in the country that the new government is going to eliminate or phase out the ubiquitous Cuban convertible peso that is pegged to the U.S. dollar (or the “CUCs” used by many Cubans and foreign tourists) and somehow leave the Cuban peso in place (which is the currency that most Cubans are paid in, though it takes roughly 25 pesos to equal one CUC). But the Cubans are desperately trying to figure out how they can increase the value of the Cuban peso without inflicting a significant shock to the economy.
Someone who works in the tourism sector said that “it was crazy to keep two currencies in circulation and where a Cuban doctor can earn 40 CUCs in a single month.” But when pressed on the timing of the change, she could only say frustratingly: “It could be early next year. It could be in three months. It might even be in 10 years.”
One Cuban suggested that Diaz-Canel, even under the watchful eye and mentorship of Raul Castro, would initiate change in terms of a democratic opening and greater political space. But he was less than forthcoming when it came to specifics.
Still another Cuban insisted that Raul would continue to dictate any political changes or sharp adjustments to the economy. Others maintained that political changes or an “opening” in Cuba is possible under Diaz-Canel over time — but not in the short term.
Finally, while talking to two people in a central commercial area in Havana, near the lavish Manzana de Gomez shopping arcade, they both said that things in Cuba are likely to remain the same as before. “In Cuba, we say that there are three Castros: Fidel, Raul and now Miguel (Diaz-Canel). We’ll soon start talking about the Canelistas,” one intoned.