Vapid federal election ads unlikely to inspire indifferent electorate
With just days to go before the starting gun fires on the 2019 election, the two realistic contenders for power have released their campaign ads and slogans.
As indifferent Canadians across the country pull the curtains, lest they be visited by local candidates, the parties are hoping that their message will punch through to a reluctant electorate in advertisements during American Ninja Warrior.
The slogans are typically vapid, designed to make the viewer feel like they are party to a momentous event — Obama urged his supporters “Forward” in 2012; Tony Blair said “Forward, not back” in 2005; Justin Trudeau has now opted for “Choose Forward.” You can see a pattern here — not least that they succeeded in re-electing the incumbent leader.
However, as a spur to action and noble self-sacrifice, it is no “Once more unto the breach, dear friends.” The progressive leader who has been in power for four years is robbed of the favourite campaign bromides — “hope” and “change” — and is obliged, therefore, to keep it vague and positive sounding. Not for Trudeau, the vow offered by one Filipino politician: “I’ll do my best but I can’t promise anything.”
At least, Andrew Scheer’s “It’s Time for You to Get Ahead” dispenses with the evangelism and appeals to naked self-interest.
The thin marketing veneer on show in these ads is transparent, yet a new poll suggests less than half the potential voter pool has firmly made up its mind. As such, these attempts at persuasion bear closer scrutiny.
The Liberal ad is designed to not only relocate Trudeau from the seedy backrooms where he tried to influence his attorney general (according to the ethics commissioner) but to rehabilitate him too.
It shows him travelling on a bus in his own riding of Papineau — presumably, not a regular means of conveyance for him, even before he became prime minister.
But Trudeau’s voiceover suggests he’s not the spoiled child of fortune his opponents paint him — that he “got into politics to help people.”
The visuals are of immigrants, young families and, in particular, younger women. This is astute — as a new poll by Angus Reid Institute indicates, men, especially older men, have already locked in their vote — and, for most, it’s not for Trudeau. The Conservatives have most committed voters — 25 per cent, with another 19 per cent considering. For the Liberals, those numbers are only 13 per cent committed, with another 24 per cent considering.
The better news for the Liberals is that those uncommitted voters are likely to be women, whose top issue is climate change. While they are more likely to vote for Trudeau than Scheer, the nightmare scenario for the Liberals is that they don’t vote at all.
In the 18-29 year old cohort, Trudeau outpaced Stephen Harper more than two to one in 2015. But while a majority have not ruled out voting Liberal, there is a distinct lack of enthusiasm.
The Choose Forward line is ambiguous to the point of being meaningless. Trudeau urges voters to “build on the progress we’ve made” — which might work if people think progress has indeed been achieved. But the disenchantment suggested by the ARI poll calls that into question.
Perhaps that explains why the bulk of the Liberal ad is not about their record in government, it’s about the Conservatives.
In an interview last year with senior Liberal strategist Tom Pitfield, he said the likelihood the Conservatives will go low with attack ads on Trudeau in this campaign offers the opportunity to own the positive, hopeful narrative again.
Yet the Liberal ad calls for voters to “choose forward” or “go back to the politics of the Harper years.”
If there was truth in political advertising, the strapline would read: “Choose more of the same or we’ll bring back the scary man.”
The Scheer ad is less nuanced and less imaginative. It consists of the Conservative leader speaking to camera with a simple message about how he plans to lower the cost of living for voters who “feel like they are falling further and further behind, or barely getting by.”
He claims to have a plan to make life more affordable but does not offer any clues how he aims to do that and balance the budget, without cutting services.
It’s pretty lifeless stuff — not many voters will feel their pulse quicken at the sight of the man or his plan.
This election campaign has not yet started officially, so only a total blockhead would predict its outcome. But one thing seems certain — that turnout will not match the 68.5 per cent of voters who participated four years ago.
The closest parallel at this stage is the 2001 British election, won by Labour’s Tony Blair in what became known as the “apathetic landslide.”
Labour had squandered its political capital during its first four years in power, in similar fashion to Trudeau, but the economy was benign and Blair promised to roll up his sleeves and focus on the delivery of better services, if re-elected. A disaffected and impatient electorate subsequently decided he was the least worst option available.
It would be a surprise to nobody, particularly given the current state of the NDP, if Canada were to experience its own apathetic landslide in two months.