Erdogan’s options in Syria narrow

Russia presses crisis to Turkey’s doorstep

ISTANBUL — With nearly one million displaced Syrians massing near the Turkish border in the face of a Syrian government military offensive, President Tayyip Erdogan’s options are narrowing. He feels blindsided by Russia’s push into Syria’s Idlib region and the risk of full-blown conflict is growing, but Turkey’s Erdogan remains hopeful a deal with Moscow may offer a way out of the crisis, according to Turkish government officials and other sources.

Erdogan has repeatedly warned that Turkey, which backs rebels in Syria’s northwest province, would push Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s troops away from territory taken in the recent months if they didn’t pull back by the end of February.

But as Saturday’s deadline has drawn closer, the Russiabacked Syrian offensive has continued to gain ground and a third round of talks between Ankara and Moscow this week were not expected to quickly break the deadlock.

Turkish government and Syrian opposition military officials, diplomats and analysts said while a full-scale Turkishbacked military operation is still a possibility, depending on how hard Russia bargains, Erdogan is more likely at this late stage to agree a deal with Moscow that has him withdraw some of Turkey’s military presence in exchange for a role in deciding Syria’s future. They added that Erdogan has been taken aback by what Turkey views as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s uncompromising stance in the field and in discussions.

A Turkish official told Reuters: “Turkey and Russia can still reach a compromise.” But, “if there is no agreement and attacks on Turkish soldiers continue, the Idlib offensive will begin,” referring to a direct Turkish military effort to retake territory.

Erdogan’s office did not respond to a request for comment. He and aides have publicly said they want to solve the problem with Russia, but that Turkey’s resolve should not be tested and it will not abandon observation posts in Idlib, some of which have been surrounded by Syrian forces.

Erdogan’s decision will help define one of the worst humanitarian disasters so far this century, in which an estimated 900,000 Syrians – about half of whom are children – have been uprooted as they have fled the bombing of their towns and villages in recent months. In December, Moscow and Damascus, reinforced by Iranbacked fighters, launched the operation into the last big territory in northwest Syria held by opposition forces as they seek to end on Assad’s terms nine years of a bloody proxy that has resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of Syrians.

As Russian-backed Syrian government forces have pushed northwest, displaced Syrians have amassed along Turkey’s closed southern border sleeping in tents or outside, with at least several children having died in freezing weather in recent months. “The bombing comes at us from everywhere... We no longer have any guarantor, not Turkey nor anyone else,” said Mohamad Atouf, 31, sheltering with his wife and four children in an empty hut near the border town of Azaz.

Erdogan faces the competing demands of the welfare of the displaced Syrians and his support at home, where there is little appetite for adding to the 3.7 million Syrian refugees already in Turkey.