Crisis boosts support for most leaders

Maybe it should be called the “COVID bounce” because what goes up will come down, but for the most part, governments and their leaders across Canada and around the world are experiencing significant gains in public support since they turned their attention to fighting the coronavirus.

It’s normal, maybe even natural, in times of crisis for citizens to “rally ‘round the flag,” and that generally – but not always – translates into improved polling numbers for governments and the politicians who lead them.

Take Ontario Premier Doug Ford, if only because he offers perhaps the most striking example in Canada.

In February, before the virus took hold, barely 30 per cent of Ontarians approved of the job Ford was doing as premier. By late April, about two months into the COVID19 crisis, Ford had the approval of more than seven in 10 Ontario residents, and one recent poll (Ipsos) found that 82 per cent of Ontarians now approve of Ford’s job performance.

Adversity, it’s said, does not build character but reveals it, and the people of Ontario clearly approve of the character their premier has displayed leading his province through the unremitting adversity created by the coronavirus.

Here in Atlantic Canada, most provincial governments were posting mediocre approval numbers – somewhere in the mid-40 per cent range – as recently as early March. A month later, with all four provinces basically locked down to slow the spread of the virus, every government in the region had the support of more than eight in 10 of its citizens. Granted, the Narrative Research poll in April that produced those high approval numbers asked respondents to rate their provincial government’s performance specifically on its handling of the COVID-19 outbreak. But, considering that the pandemic was pretty much all those governments had on their plates – at least publicly – it’s a safe assumption that the overall approval for each government has taken a healthy positive bounce over the past two-plus months.

It’s also true that Canadians, in overwhelming numbers, support the tight restrictions governments imposed to try to contain the virus. Now, with variations in timing, governments are moving to a new phase, where they’ll begin to ease those restrictions.

That change will present citizens with a whole new set of metrics against which to measure the performance of their governments, and anything deemed a failure could erode support just as quickly as the perception of success elevated it.

Across Canada, there’s only one government that suffered a decline in popularity since the crisis hit, and that’s in Alberta, where support for Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives has fallen eight points, to 57 per cent.

Kenney’s government was headed in the wrong direction before the COVID-19 outbreak, as Albertans became impatient for the economic turnaround he’d promised.

To add insult to injury, the majority of Albertans – 54 per cent – say former premier and

NDP leader Rachel Notley would do a better job than Kenney in handling the crisis.

And – even more startling – 56 per cent of Albertans approve of the job the federal Liberals are doing to manage the COVID-19 crisis. That number is surprising because Albertans are not favourably disposed to the federal Liberals. Only 14 per cent of Albertans voted Liberal in October.

Since the crisis began, both the federal government and the prime minister have been experiencing increased support right across the country.

The national government is supported by a majority of citizens in every province and its popularity reaches its zenith in Atlantic Canada, where 78 per cent now favour the federal Liberals.

Justin Trudeau’s popularity also took a decided COVID bounce. He had the approval of about 43 per cent of Canadians back in January, but that number is closer to 60 per cent today.

Trudeau is not alone among world leaders who’ve experienced a pronounced bounce in popularity. Germany’s Angela Merkel now has the approval of 56 per cent of her nation, a 16-point improvement since January. Support for the UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson jumped from 48 per cent to 61 per cent over the past three months, and Australia’s Scott Morrison, whose approval sank to just 33 per cent in January after wildfires ravaged parts of that nation, has recovered to an amazing 66 per cent approval rating today.

Like Kenney in Canada, Donald Trump is an outlier on the international front. The U.S. president has the approval of about 43 per cent of Americans today, virtually unchanged since the COVID19 crisis hit America in February-March.

While many would argue that Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis has been erratic at best, his level of support among Americans seems pretty much baked in regardless, and never moves much outside the 40-45 per cent range.

Journalist and writer Jim Vibert has worked as a communications adviser to five Nova Scotia governments. jim. vibert@saltwire.com@JimVibert