Creating a climate of fear

At the risk of being tarred and feathered by the supporters of the Island’s chief public health officer, or being removed from my residence to the interprovincial border under an Order of the Minister of Justice and Public Safety, I would like to question some of the actions of the Island government.

P.E.I.’s pandemic contingency plan identifies four stages in a pandemic (Pandemic planning, April 17 Guardian). Stage 3 identifies that high pandemic numbers occur when the health system may start to be overwhelmed. Stage 4 is a declaration of a state of emergency.

On April 13, the chief public health officer released projection modelling of the impact that COVID-19 could have on the province. The projections were put together by experts, including provincial epidemiologists, and forecast between nine and 900 deaths by June 1, depending on whether there were strong, or mild, control measures. At that time there were 26 cases identified — with none hospitalized.

On April 17, the minister of Justice and Public Safety, on the advice of the Chief Public Health Office, declared a state of emergency. This state of emergency was subsequently renewed on April 30, May 31 and June 15.

There have been no COVID-19 deaths on the Island to date and, to my knowledge, no hospitalizations. What was the justification for a state of emergency? There were no deaths, no hospitalizations from COVID-19, and the health system was certainly not overwhelmed. What was the reason for renewing the state of emergency on May 31 or June 15, when it was abundantly clear that the April 13 projections were totally inaccurate, and that the climate of fear and distrust created by those projections was increasing as talks moved to opening the Island?

A guest opinion (Good news and bad news, May 28) by John Palmer, a retired chief statistician of the Island Treasury, termed the projections “extraordinary … based more on conjecture than actual data.” This was a professional’s opinion of the work of the experts cited by the chief public health officer.

Another guest opinion (The new enemy, June 10) by Ron Keefe highlighted the economic impact of irrational fear. As he wrote, “time has passed but the fear prevails.”

The dire projections of April created a climate of fear and distrust which has pitted Islanders against Islanders, Islanders against seasonal residents, neighbours against neighbours and, in a few cases, family members against family members. COVID-19 kills, but fear and distrust can also kill – in more subtle ways.

Without the projections, would a state of emergency have been declared? Which, building on the climate of fear, has severely damaged the economic stability of the Island. In the face of the badly flawed projections has the premier, or the chief public health officer, offered any explanations, or new projections, to lessen the climate of fear the original projections created. Have the “experts” found the mistakes in their original projections?

Why, without new projections, would the state of emergency have been extended past May 31, and then to June 28? The cynical would perhaps say there are politics in play. And all Islanders, and the majority of Island businesses, are paying the price!