Inside threat to Atlantic bubble
Alarming increases in COVID-19 cases in central and western Canada ensure that travel restrictions to Atlantic Canada from the rest of the country are with us for the foreseeable future, but will the Atlantic bubble survive pressure from within?
The COVID count continues to climb in New Brunswick, driven almost exclusively by outbreaks in the Moncton and Campbellton areas, where the province has increased the alert level to an ominous orange.
Orange is better than red but worse than yellow, the colour New Brunswick’s been in for months and still is outside of the Moncton and Campbellton orange zones.
In New Brunswick, yellow means that, while there’s still a risk, COVID-19 is under control.
That would describe the present situation across almost all of Atlantic Canada.
The orange alert level indicates that there’s a significant risk that COVID-19 is not under control in those zones. New Brunswick also has red and green levels and, as you’d expect, red is not good at all and green means we can toss the masks and start getting back to the real normal.
The two geographic ally defined outbreak sin New Brunswick have the attention of public health officials and politicians in the other Atlantic provinces, who are watching to see if they are brought under control effectively and expeditiously.
That’s because those two outbreaks are the first signs of real trouble inside the famed Atlantic bubble, which permits free movement of residents throughout the region, but visitors from outside must self-isolate for 14-days.
Monday, Newfoundland and Labrador reported nine active cases of COVID-19 and, when Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia last reported, P.E.I. had three active cases and Nova Scotia reported four.
By contrast, New Brunswick reported 90 active cases on Wednesday, almost all of which are tied to the current outbreaks in Moncton and Campbellton. The New Brunswick government has advised that all unnecessary travel into or out of the two orange zones should be avoided, prompting Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador to echo that advisory and caution their own residents who may have been in those zones to exercise additional care after returning home.
In Nova Scotia, public health officials have said they’re monitoring the situation and staying in contact with counterparts in New Brunswick.
“There are no changes to our border policy at this time,” Nova Scotia’s public health officials said, suggesting that the border policy is, at least, open for debate.
Prince Edward Island’s chief medical officer of health, Heather Morrison, went a little further.
While she noted that outbreaks like those in Moncton and Campbellton are possible anywhere, she also suggested that the East Coast provinces will be looking at whether there should be changes to the Atlantic bubble.
It’s worth remembering that before the July creation of the bubble, each of the four provinces had its own travel restrictions and they applied to other Atlantic Canadians.
The bubble was created after the COVID curve flattened in all four provinces and – with entry restrictions limiting visitors from everywhere else – free movement of Atlantic Canadians throughout the region was expected to spur some economic activity and salvage a shred of the tourism season.
To the extent possible, it seems to have worked. Atlantic Canadians travelled the region and the virus was held at bay. When it was detected, it was usually during the 14-day isolation period of a traveller from outside the region.
But the flareups in Moncton and Campbellton raise the question of whether the bubble will survive if – when? – one or more of the provinces experiences anything that resembles a second wave of the virus.
Each province has its own public health bureaucracy and, perhaps more to the point, each has its own political culture.
If there’s a significant resurgence in one province, public health officials in the neighbouring province will be tempted to re-erect provincial barriers.
And, charged as they are with responsibility for their own political entity, provincial governments will follow any advice consistent with that responsibility.
But let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. In addition to the economic benefits, the Atlantic bubble has created a shared sense of responsibility and solidarity across the region. It may run counter to the national concept of Canada, but its given Atlantic Canadians a greater sense of control over their own destiny.
And it seems like that sense is stronger on a regional basis than it would be if each province retreated back within its own borders.