Byelection win could discourage collaborative government
UPEI political science professor argues majority government may embolden opposition
UPEI political science professor Don Desserud said the end of P.E.I.’s experiment with minority government could give the Opposition Greens and Liberals more room to manoeuvre.
The byelection win Monday night by Progressive Conservative candidate Zack Bell has provided the Dennis King government with a slim majority of 14 of the 27 seats in P.E.I.’s legislature.
Bell, a former radio host with Hot 105.5, seized a decisive win in the Charlottetown-Winsloe byelection on Monday, capturing 49 per cent of the vote. Bell defeated Green candidate Chris van Ouwerkerk, who earned 27 per cent of the vote, by a large margin. Liberal candidate Zac Murphy captured 22 per cent of the vote.
Bell’s campaign leaned heavily on the personal popularity of King, and King pledged to continue a “collaborative” style of government.
“King has consistently said that they won't change anything. He's going to continue the co-operative style of politics that he has," Desserud told The Guardian in an interview on Tuesday.
"That co-operative style of politics is dependent on one of the two opposition parties — and it has consistently been the Greens — playing nice."
The key incentive for this arrangement has been the willingness of Peter BevanBaker’s Green party to avoid facing the better-financed and better organized Progressive Conservatives in an election.
"That's the formula that allows the so-called cooperative governing style to actually working — Greens playing nice because they don't want an election," Desserud said.
But with a slim PC majority in the legislature, both the Green and Liberal opposition parties have less of an incentive to temper their criticisms of the governing PCs.
The Greens have said that there is no contradiction between holding government to account and negotiating concessions from the governing PCs, such as the $2.5-million in additional dental coverage for seniors and low-income Islanders included in last spring’s operating budget.
The Liberals have publicly expressed skepticism with
acting as both an opposition party and government collaborator but have not opposed confidence motions, such as last spring’s budget.
Desserud said Bell’s win in the byelection could change this dynamic.
“I think what’s going to happen is you’re going to have two opposition parties who are going to be far, far more aggressive than what we’ve seen in the past,” he said.
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of long-time Liberal MLA Robert Mitchell, a politician known for his constituencylevel work.
Desserud believes that Monday night’s byelection results, including the third place finish of Liberal Zac Murphy, are an indication of a drift of Liberal voters to the PCs.
He believes many voters see the Liberals as a party “in trouble,” without a permanent leader. The party has an interim leader in EvangelineMiscouche MLA Sonny Gallant, but the party has made few moves toward electing a permanent leader since the dismal result of the 2019 election.
“You have a party without identidy. People don’t know who you are because a leader defines that,” Desserud said.
For his part, on Monday night, King said he would continue to maintain a positive relationship with the opposition parties. He downplayed the majority status, suggesting a vote from Speaker Colin LaVie, a PC MLA, could be unpredictable.
“We can’t be relying on that as a sure vote in the box for us on a contentious issue,” he said of a scenario involving a vote by the speaker.
In an interview, Bell said mental health and addictions and education were the two most prominent issues raised by residents of Charlottetown-Winsloe. When asked if he was willing to hold his own government to account if necessary, Bell said he would.